CATL restart drives lithium volatility

China’s lithium market is also seeing support from the delayed restart of Contemporary Amperex Technology’s (CATL) (SZSE:300750,HKEX:3750) Jianxiawo mine in Yichun.

The mine normally produces about 65,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent a year, roughly 6 percent of global supply. However, it has been shut down since August after its operating permit expired.

CATL is reportedly making progress at getting the mine back online, but no exact date has been given.

The shutdown has spilled into global markets as well. In September, Australian lithium stocks fell sharply on the back of signs that CATL’s restart could be approaching.

Oversupply still weighing on lithium market

Beyond China, the broader lithium market has struggled with imbalance throughout 2025.

Prices spiked in July and August before easing again in September, with talks of potential supply cuts by Australian miners creating short-lived rallies despite strong inventories and growing production.

“The nascency of the lithium market means that it is prone to be led by sentiment,” Fastmarkets’ Claudia Cook wrote earlier this year, noting how futures activity has repeatedly drifted from fundamentals.

Oversupply remains the defining theme. Global mined output has jumped 192 percent since 2020, swelling inventories faster than even robust electric-vehicle demand can absorb.

While electric vehicle sales topped 17 million units in 2024 and are expected to exceed 20 million this year, production growth, including a 22 percent rise in mined supply in 2024, has kept the market in surplus.

Analysts have warned that the imbalance in the lithium sector could persist into the next decade unless mine delays, project cancelations or unexpectedly strong demand intervene.

Beijing’s new export controls have added another layer of uncertainty.

Export controls announced last month would mandate that Chinese companies secure export licenses for high-energy lithium-ion batteries, synthetic graphite anodes and critical production equipment. China has delayed the implementation of these controls for one year, until November 10, 2026, as part of a deal with the US.

Against that backdrop, the US is looking to boost its supply of non-Chinese lithium.

The US Department of Energy released the first US$435 million from a US$2.23 billion loan to Lithium Americas (TSX:LAC,NYSE:LAC) in October, advancing construction of the Thacker Pass project in Nevada — set to become the largest lithium source in the western hemisphere once online. The project is central to Washington’s push to reduce dependence on Chinese refining and secure domestic supplies of battery-grade material.

For now, China remains the clearest guide for price direction. Monday’s futures jump showed how quickly sentiment can move when major producers offer firmer demand signals.

Overinvestment concerns in AI infrastructure

Drawing parallels between the current AI investment boom and the historic dot-com bubble, Ramos warned about the risk of overbuilding capacity without enough demand-driving applications.

“I’ve been worrying that we’re … building all this capacity, (but) there aren’t enough killer apps to use all the capacity that’s being built. What I worry (is that) we’re going to end up in the same place that we did in the boom,’ he said.

Formerly an engineer at the Boeing Company (NYSE:BA), Ramos provides technical insight on intellectual property (IP) licensing, portfolio growth and management. He leverages his experience in software and IT service transactions to advise clients on AI risk evaluation and help them develop workplace AI policies.

Ramos cautioned against overbuilding capacity without established demand, drawing lessons from the telecommunications bubble. He compared the fiber optic cable buildout of the past to the current construction of AI data centers and infrastructure, and described working extensively for companies involved in building out this capacity, only to see the market collapse when the anticipated demand failed to materialize.

“We did all these things technologically to get more capacity, and then it wasn’t needed. And all the investments that happened … it impacted my practice quite a bit,’ he noted.

While today’s enthusiasm is similar to what happened then, Ramos said a key difference is that today’s institutional investors are less willing to tolerate prolonged uncertainty without visible paths to profitability.

“Enterprise demand kind of works in the same way that it always did,” he explained.

“Most of my clients have not yet put a whole bunch of money into the next brand-new thing, because they want to make sure the next brand-new thing works and is going to be sold and maintained by a vendor who’s going to be around to do that. So there’s kind of a slower adoption than what you see on the consumer side,’ Ramos added.

Companies that look beyond hype and strategically balance investment with clear business cases will likely emerge strongest. Ramos advised leaders to consider succession and exit strategies in technology ventures early, underscoring that “the business lifecycle around AI is evolving quickly, and legal foresight is essential.”

Legal and regulatory considerations shaping AI infrastructure adoption

With technology evolving rapidly, Ramos emphasized that savvy businesses must assess AI-specific risks carefully, pointing to issues such as intellectual property infringement.

“Data privacy is a concern,” he said. “If you have an AI solution, and you are using it to solve problems that involve putting personal information into an LLM, can that LLM access that information to answer other people’s questions? And, if they can, there’s a potential that you have privacy breaches going on.”

Ramos advised businesses to consider where the value of AI adoption lies, and whether it comes with its own flaws.

He also highlighted that the landscape is currently highly fragmented, with no preemptive federal policy guiding AI development. As a result, states are establishing their own rules, creating a “patchwork” of regulations that increase compliance challenges as well as costs, a potentially major impediment to both innovation and infrastructure investments. All of this will shape how and where companies decide to develop and deploy AI solutions.

Strategic innovation in AI infrastructure

Ramos suggested that the buildout of AI infrastructure could prompt significant changes in how companies approach tech investment, noting that models could shift toward more flexible resource allocation rather than outright ownership, mirroring successful “capacity sharing” approaches from past technology cycles.

The emergence of new models and increased focus on energy efficiency could prompt significant changes in how companies structure their technology investments and strategies.

Ramos highlighted time sharing of GPU resources as a key emerging strategy to optimize costly AI infrastructure, drawing a parallel to historical time sharing in fiber optics as a model.

He explained that with GPUs currently utilized only 15 to 20 percent of the time, there is major potential for efficiency gains if companies share or lease compute resources when not in use.

Emerging business models that enable GPU time sharing represent promising avenues for value creation. For investors, this marks a shift toward more asset-light, scalable models in AI infrastructure.

A partnership between decentralized data platform Pundi AI and decentralized cloud computing provider Spheron Network exemplifies this strategy. Their collaboration addresses the problems of low-quality training data and the high costs of compute resources by providing verifiable, community-labeled datasets with on-chain provenance, packaged as tokenized digital assets that development teams can access securely and transparently.

The recent partnership creates an integrated pipeline from data to scalable, affordable compute, supporting decentralized AI development and directly addressing the inefficiencies and bottlenecks in current AI workflows.

On the compute side, Spheron Network offers decentralized and affordable GPU and CPU resources, enabling AI developers to rent compute power on demand rather than relying on costly fixed infrastructure.

This allows AI developers, especially startups and small teams, to run more experiments per dollar, avoid costly fixed infrastructure and scale compute resources flexibly based on their needs.

Investor takeaway

As capital floods into AI infrastructure, Ramos advised prudence coupled with innovation.

The stakes are high, with opportunities to reshape the technology landscape, but equally real risks underscoring the importance of legal and strategic guidance. For companies navigating these waters, careful planning around AI investments and corporate policies will be key to long-term success.

Investor Insight

Copper Quest Exploration is advancing a portfolio of high-quality copper porphyry projects across British Columbia and the Western United States. With over 40,000 hectares in tier-one jurisdictions and a discovery-first mindset, the company is positioned to deliver multiple catalysts from both Canadian and US projects in 2025 and beyond.

Overview

Copper Quest Exploration (CSE:CQX,OTCQB:IMIMF,FRA:3MX) is focused on creating shareholder value through the exploration and development of its North American critical mineral portfolio. The company’s land position covers more than 40,000 hectares across tier-one mining jurisdictions in Canada and the US.

In British Columbia, Copper Quest holds a 100-percent-interest in the Stars property, a porphyry copper-molybdenum discovery covering 9,693 hectares in central BC’s Bulkley Porphyry Belt; the 5,389-hectare Stellar property, consolidating multiple historic showings and new geophysical anomalies; an earn-in option of up to 80 percent on the Rip project, a 4,700-hectare porphyry copper-molybdenum system in the same belt; and the 100-percent-owned Thane Project, spanning 20,658 hectares in the Toodoggone Porphyry Belt with multiple copper-gold-molybdenum targets.

In Lemhi County, Idaho, Copper Quest has acquired the Nekash copper-gold porphyry project, an early-stage, highly prospective property in the Idaho-Montana porphyry belt. The acquisition marks Copper Quest’s expansion to the US, strategically leveraging Idaho’s growing reputation as a copper exploration frontier.

The company is expanding its footprint in BC through an agreement to acquire the Kitimat Copper-Gold Project, located about 10 km northwest of the deep-water port of Kitimat, and an option to purchase a local company holding 100 percent ownership of the Alpine Gold Property.

Company Highlights

• Large, Tier-one Land Position: More than 40,000 hectares across British Columbia’s Bulkley and Toodoggone Porphyry Belts, plus a newly acquired copper-gold porphyry project in Idaho, USA.
• Flagship Discovery at Stars: Drill intercepts of 0.466 percent copper over 195.1 m confirm a fertile porphyry copper-molybdenum system with over 30 km of untested intrusive contacts.
• Multiple Copper Systems: Canadian portfolio includes Stars, Stellar, Rip (earn-in up to 80 percent) and Thane, each offering district-scale potential in proven belts.
• Idaho Acquisition: The Nekash copper-gold porphyry project in Lemhi County, Idaho, is a milestone acquisition aligned with its strategy to build a portfolio of highly prospective copper assets across North America.
• British Columbia Acquisition: Copper Quest is acquiring both the Alpine Gold Property in the West Kootenay region and the Kitimat Copper-Gold Project located just 10 km from the deep-water port of Kitimat, B.C.

Key Projects

Stars Project

The Stars project is a 9,694-hectare, road-accessible copper-molybdenum property situated within the prolific Bulkley porphyry belt. The district is home to past-producing operations such as the Huckleberry mine, operated by Imperial Metals, and Newmont’s Equity Silver Mine, making it a proven copper jurisdiction. Stars is defined by a 5 × 2.5-kilometre annular magnetic anomaly that coincides with a copper-molybdenum mineralized monzonite intrusion. In 2018, drilling confirmed a significant porphyry system at the Tana Zone, returning intercepts of 0.466 percent copper over 195.1 m from 23 m with molybdenum credits and 0.20 percent copper over 396.7 metres from 28 metres depth. Shorter, higher-grade sections included 40 metres averaging close to 1 percent copper. Importantly, every hole drilled on the property has returned copper concentrations well above background levels, with strong phyllic and potassic alteration, multi-phase intrusive textures, and quartz-sulfide veining consistent with productive porphyry systems.

Impressive drill results in 2018 have never seen follow-up exploration

Geological comparisons with Huckleberry suggest Stars has the potential to host multiple deposits along more than 30 kilometres of untested intrusive contact. Upcoming work will focus on IP surveys to vector into contact zones, step-out drilling at the Tana Zone, and initial drilling of embayment features such as the “Big Dipper” anomaly.

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Rip Project

The Rip project is a 4,750-hectare copper-molybdenum property located 60 kilometres south of Houston, BC, with excellent access via Highway 16 and logging roads. Geophysical surveys completed in 2024, including airborne magnetics and a 3D-DCIP induced polarization program, identified two concentric chargeability anomalies encircling separate magnetic highs. These “donut” features are classic pyrite halos that typically rim porphyry copper centres.

In late 2024, Copper Quest drilled two holes totaling 1,033 metres into the northern anomaly. The results confirmed the presence of multi-phase porphyry intrusions with abundant quartz-pyrite-chalcopyrite-molybdenite veining, long intervals of anomalous copper above 0.1 percent, and strong alteration patterns. The larger southern anomaly remains completely untested and represents the project’s most significant target. Copper Quest has the option to earn up to 80 percent in Rip by spending $1 million by the end of 2025, after which the agreement transitions to a joint venture. Planned drilling will test the southern anomaly while stepping out on the northern target to vector into higher-grade zones.

Stellar Project

The Stellar project covers 5,389 hectares and lies immediately north of Stars. It consolidates multiple historic claims and showings that had never been evaluated under a unified geological model. Stellar hosts several key targets, most notably the Cassiopeia anomaly, a 2.5-kilometre magnetic bullseye with an 800-metre magnetic low at its centre, discovered in 2019 but never drill tested. This geophysical feature is strongly consistent with porphyry copper-molybdenum-gold models.

The Jewelry Box area is another high-priority target, hosting eight documented MINFILE showings where historical sampling returned extreme grades, including 36.7 percent copper, 31.2 percent copper, 22.6 percent copper with 4,860 grams per ton (g/t0 silver, and gold values up to 42 g/t. These occurrences are related to a porphyritic intrusion that cuts Hazelton Group volcanic rocks and limestone, with mineralization styles ranging from high-grade copper-gold-silver veins to lead-zinc-silver occurrences and rhodonite-hosted mineralization. Additional targets include the Galena Zone, a 100 × 150 metre area with strong lead-silver-zinc mineralization, and the Northwest Showings, associated with syenite intrusions. Copper Quest is applying a holistic approach to the property for the first time, integrating fragmented historical exploration. Planned programs include ground IP at Cassiopeia, systematic mapping and sampling at Jewelry Box, and drill targeting across the consolidated property.

Thane Project

The Thane project is a 20,658-hectare copper-gold property in the Toodoggone District of the Quesnel Terrane, an area that hosts major porphyry deposits such as Mt. Milligan and Kemess. The property encompasses a 14 km × 6 km alteration footprint with at least ten mineralized centres, including Cirque, Fairway, Bananas, Gail, and Aten. Historical exploration has involved more than $5 million of investment in mapping, geochemistry, geophysics and shallow drilling, with 12 short diamond drill holes completed to date. Rock sampling campaigns between 2013 and 2020 returned copper grades exceeding 9,000 parts per million (ppm) and gold values up to 12.8 g/t, highlighting the system’s fertility. Regional Geoscience BC datasets place Thane in the 100th percentile for copper prospectivity across British Columbia. Copper Quest views Thane as a large-scale discovery opportunity and is considering a joint venture to advance the project while retaining upside exposure.

Nekash Project

The Nekash project is a highly prospective copper-gold porphyry opportunity in Lemhi County, Idaho, situated along the prolific Idaho-Montana porphyry belt. Spanning 70 unpatented federal lode claims (~585 hectares), the property is fully road-accessible via maintained US highways and forest service roads. Historic sampling has confirmed the presence of high-grade surface mineralization, including up to 3.8 percent copper, 0.9 g/t gold, and 25 g/t silver over 6.4 m in a stratabound “manto” horizon, and porphyry-style veins grading as high as 6.6 percent copper with gold values.

Acquired at a modest cost (4.25 million shares, no cash payment or royalties), and coupled with the appointment of an experienced technical advisor, Nekash offers shareholders exposure to a jurisdiction with favorable infrastructure, strong comparables and room for significant upside through geophysics, geochemistry and drilling.

Management Team

Brian Thurston — CEO and Director

Geologist with over 30 years of global exploration experience Brian Thurston is the former country manager for Aurelian Resources in Ecuador during the Fruta del Norte discovery. Has managed and founded multiple public resource companies with expertise in porphyry systems, corporate strategy, and capital markets.

Dong Shim — CFO

Dong Shim is a chartered professional accountant with extensive experience in public company audits, financial controls and cross-border reporting for TSXV, CSE and OTC issuers.

Dr. Mark Cruise — Director

A geologist and mining executive with over 25 years of experience, Mark Cruise is the founder and former CEO of Trevali Mining, which he built into a top-10 global zinc producer with operations in four countries. Previously with Anglo American.

Jason Nickel — Director

Jason Nickel is a mining engineer with three decades of mine design, operations, and project management experience across Canada. Held senior roles in underground and open-pit operations.

Cameron MacDonald — Director

Cameron MacDonald is a capital markets professional with background in M&A, project financing and equity/debt raises exceeding $950 million.

Joshua White – Technical Advisor

Joshua White is an exploration geologist with more than 13 years of experience, and a principal of Aqua Terra Geoscientists LLC. He worked for Kinross Gold as a project generation gold geologist, working at mines and exploration projects on 4 different continents.