What is the most common source of cobalt?

As cobalt is only found in a chemically combined form, it must be separated from mined ore. Most commonly, cobalt is produced as a by-product at copper or nickel mines. According to Benchmark Minerals, currently three-quarters of cobalt is produced from copper-primary mines and 25 percent is produced from nickel-primary mines. The agency forecasts that by 2030, cobalt production from copper-primary mines will fall to 57 percent, while that from nickel-primary mines will rise to 41 percent.

How rare is cobalt on Earth?

Cobalt is the 32nd most common element on Earth, according to the Cobalt Institute, meaning it isn’t particularly rare. However, only a handful of countries have cobalt reserves over 300,000 MT, with the DRC coming in first place at 4 million MT, Australia in second at 1.5 million MT and Indonesia coming in third place with 600,000 MT. In fact, the DRC has higher cobalt reserves than the rest of the world combined.

How many years of cobalt are left?

How long it will take to deplete cobalt reserves and resources depends on the approach and speed with which electrification and a fully renewable society is approached, according to a 2019 study. Another factor is whether or not lithium-ion battery formulas that require cobalt will continue to be the norm in the future. If widespread cobalt substitution does take place, that will ease demand pressures on the metal.

Why is cobalt so valuable?

Cobalt has risen in recent years due to supply chain difficulties and the metal’s necessity in many lithium-ion battery cathodes, with prices peaking in March and April 2022 at over US$80,000 per MT. However, prices have fallen since then, and sat around the US$33,000 mark as of November 2023. The EV story has led to increased cobalt supply, meaning that there will be short-term price pressures due to oversupply as demand continues to rise in the coming years.

What is the problem with cobalt mining?

Most cobalt production takes place in the DRC, which is known for artisanal mining. Artisanal miners are adults and children who are not employed by mining companies, but mine independently using their own tools or just their hands.

A 2023 ABC news report on the country’s artisanal mining industry estimates that 200,000 artisanal miners are working on cobalt deposits; unfortunately, a lack of oversight and safety measures means injuries and death are more frequent than in regulated mining. While organizations are working to keep the supply chain transparent, it is hard to fully avoid cobalt that is sourced through child labor and human rights abuses.

Other countries are not exempt from concerns related to mining cobalt — Indonesia’s burgeoning cobalt production comes with the vast environmental concerns that plague the nation’s nickel industry.

Is lithium a metal?

Lithium is a soft, silver-white metal used in pharmaceuticals, ceramics, grease, lubricants and heat-resistant glass. It’s also used in lithium-ion batteries, which power everything from cell phones to laptops to electric vehicles.

How much lithium is there on Earth?

Lithium is the 33rd most abundant element in nature. According to the US Geological Survey, due to continuing exploration, identified lithium resources have increased to about 105 million MT worldwide. Global lithium reserves stand at 28 million MT, with production reaching 180,000 MT in 2023.

How is lithium produced?

Lithium is found in hard-rock deposits, evaporated brines and clay deposits. The largest hard-rock mine is Greenbushes in Australia, and most lithium brine output comes from salars in Chile and Argentina.

There are various types of lithium products, and many different applications for the mineral. After lithium is extracted from a deposit, it is often processed into lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide or lithium metal. Battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide can be used to make cathode material for lithium-ion batteries.

What country produces the most lithium?

The latest data from the US Geological Survey shows that the world’s top lithium-producing countries are Australia, Chile and China, with production reaching 86,000 metric tons, 44,000 metric tons and 33,000 metric tons, respectively.

Global lithium production reached 180,000 metric tons of lithium in 2023, up from 146,000 MT in 2022, according to the US Geological Survey. About 87 percent of the lithium produced currently goes toward battery production, but other industries also consume the metal. For example, 4 percent is used in ceramics and glass, while 2 percent goes to lubricating greases.

Who is the largest miner of lithium?

The world’s largest lithium-producing mine is Talison Lithium and Albemarle’s Greenbushes hard-rock mine in Australia, which put out 37,000 metric tons of lithium in concentrate in 2022. Coming in second place is SQM’s Salar de Atacama operations in Chile, with 2022 production of 29,500 metric tons of lithium. The latter is also the world’s top-producing lithium brine operation.

Who are the top lithium consumers?

The top lithium-importing country is China by a long shot, and second place Korea is another significant importer. China is also the top country for lithium processing, and both are home to many companies producing lithium-ion batteries.

Why is lithium so hard to mine?

The different types of lithium deposits come with their own challenges.

For example, mining pegmatite lithium from hard-rock ore is known for being expensive, while extracting lithium from brines requires vast amounts of water and processing times that can sometimes be as long as 12 months. Lithium mining also comes with the difficulties associated with mining other minerals, such as long exploration and permitting periods.

What are the negative effects of lithium?

Both major forms of lithium mining can have negative effects on the environment. When it comes to hard-rock lithium mining, there have been incidents of chemicals leaking into the water supply and damaging the local ecosystems; in addition, these operations tend to have a large environmental footprint.

As mentioned, lithium brine extraction requires a lot of water for the evaporation process, but it’s hard to understand the scope without numbers. It’s estimated that approximately 2.2 million liters of water are required to produce 1 MT of lithium, and that can sometimes mean diverting water from communities that are experiencing drought conditions. This form of lithium extraction also affects the condition of the soil and air.

Will lithium run out?

Although future demand for lithium is expected to keep rising due to its role in green energy, the metal shouldn’t run out any time soon, as companies are continuing to discover new lithium reserves and are developing more advanced extraction technologies. Additionally, there are companies working on technology to recycle battery metals, which will eventually allow lithium from lithium-ion batteries to re-enter the supply chain.

What technology will replace lithium?

Researchers have been working on developing and testing a variety of lithium alternatives for batteries. Some of these options include hydrogen batteries, liquid batteries that could be pumped into vehicles, batteries that replace lithium with sodium or magnesium and even batteries powered by sea water. While nothing looks ready to replace lithium-ion batteries right now, there is potential for more efficient or more environmentally friendly options to grow in popularity in the future.

How to buy a lithium stock?

Investors are starting to pay attention to the green energy transition and the raw materials that will enable it.

When it comes to choosing a stock to invest in, understanding lithium supply and demand dynamics is key, as there are unique factors to watch for in lithium stocks. The main demand driver for lithium is what happens in the electric vehicle industry, which is expected to keep growing, and also the energy storage space. Analysts remain optimistic about the future of lithium, with many predicting the market will be tight for some time.

Investors interested in lithium stocks could consider companies listed on US, Canadian and Australian stock exchanges. They can also check out our guide on what to look for in lithium stocks today.

Why is Neumeyer calling for a US$100 silver price?

There’s a significant distance for silver to go before it reaches the success Neumeyer has boldly predicted. In fact, in order for the precious metal to jump to the US$100 mark, its price would have to increase from its current value by around 350 percent.

Neumeyer has previously stated that he expects a triple-digit silver price in part because he believed the market cycle could be compared to the year 2000, when investors were sailing high on the dot-com bubble and the mining sector was down. He thinks it’s only a matter of time before the market corrects, like it did in 2001 and 2002, and commodities see a big rebound in pricing. It was during 2000 that Neumeyer himself invested heavily in mining stocks and came out on top.

“I’ve been calling for triple-digit silver for a few years now, and I’m more enthused now,” Neumeyer said at an event in January 2020, noting that there are multiple factors behind his reasoning. “But I’m cautiously enthused because, you know, I thought it would have happened sooner than it currently is happening.”

In his August 2022 with Wall Street Silver, he reiterated his support for triple-digit silver and said he’s fortunately not alone in this optimistic view — in fact, he’s been surpassed in that optimism. ‘I actually saw someone the other day call for US$500 silver,’ he said. ‘I’m not quite sure I’m at the level. Give me US$50 first and we’ll see what happens after that.’

Another factor driving Neumeyer’s position is his belief that the silver market is in a deficit. In a May 2021 interview, when presented with supply-side data from the Silver Institute indicating the biggest surplus in silver market history, Neumeyer was blunt in his skepticism. “I think these numbers are made up,” he said. “I wouldn’t trust them at all.”

He pointed out that subtracting net investments in silver exchange-traded products leaves the market in a deficit, and also questioned the methodology behind the institute’s recycling data given that most recycled silver metal comes from privately owned smelters and refineries that typically don’t make those figures public.

‘I’m guessing the mining sector produced something in the order of 800, maybe 825 million ounces in 2022,’ Neumeyer said when giving a Q4 2022 overview for his company. ‘Consumption numbers look like they’re somewhere between 1.2 and 1.4 billion ounces. That’s due to all the great technologies, all the newfangled gadgets that we’re consuming. Electric vehicles, solar panels, windmills, you name it. All these technologies require silver … that’s a pretty big (supply) deficit.’

In a December 2023 interview with Kitco, Neumeyer stressed that silver is more than just a poor man’s gold and he spoke to silver’s important role in electric vehicles and solar cells.

In line with its view on silver, First Majestic is a member of a consortium of silver producers that in January 2024 sent a letter to the Canadian government urging that silver be recognized as a critical mineral. Silver’s inclusion on the list would allow silver producers to accelerate the development of strategic projects with financial and administrative assistance from the Canadian government. Canada’s critical minerals list is expected to get an update in the summer of 2024.

In his 2024 PDAC interview, Neumeyer once again highlighted this sizable imbalance in the silver’s supply-demand picture. “We’re six years into this deficit. The deficit in 2024 looks like it’s gonna be bigger than 2023, and why is that? Because miners aren’t producing enough silver for the needs of the human race,” he said.

More controversially, Neumeyer is of the opinion that the white metal will eventually become uncoupled from its sister metal gold, and should be seen as a strategic metal due to its necessity in many everyday appliances, from computers to electronics, as well as the technologies mentioned above. He has also stated that silver production has gone down in recent years, meaning that contrary to popular belief, he believes the metal is actually a rare commodity.

Neumeyer’s March 2023 triple-digit silver call is a long-term call, and he explained that while he believes gold will break US$3,000 this year, he thinks silver will only reach US$30 in 2023. However, once the gold/silver ratio is that unbalanced, he believes that silver will begin to take off, and it will just need a catalyst.

‘It could be Elon Musk taking a position in the silver space,’ Neumeyer said. ‘There’s going to be a catalyst at some time, and headlines in the Wall Street Journal might talk about the silver supply deficit … I don’t know what the catalyst will be, but investors and institutions will wake up to the fundamentals of the metal, and that’s when it will start to move.’

In an August 2023 interview with SilverNews, Neumeyer discussed his belief that banks are holding the silver market down. He pointed to the paper market for the metal, which he said the banks have capped at US$30 even in times of high buying.

‘If you want to go and buy 100 billion ounces of silver (in the paper market), you might not even move the price because some bank just writes you a contract that says (you own that),’ he explained, saying banks are willing to get short, because once the buying stops, they push the price down to get the investors out of the market and buy the silver back. ‘… If the miners started pulling their metal out of the current system, then all of a sudden the banks wouldn’t know if they’re going to get the metal or not, so they wouldn’t be taking the same risks they’re taking today in the paper markets.’

The month after the interview, his company First Majestic launched its own 100 percent owned and operated minting facility, named First Mint.

In 2024, gold has seen a resurgence in investor attention as the potential for Fed rate cuts nears closer. In his interview with Cambone at PDAC 2024, Neumeyer countered that perception, stating, “There’s a rush into gold because of the de-dollarization of the world. It has nothing to do with the interest rates.”

What factors affect the silver price?

In order to glean a better understanding of the precious metal’s chances of trading around the US$100 range, it’s important to examine the elements that could push it to that level or pull it further away.

The strength of the US dollar and US Federal Reserve interest rate changes are factors that will continue to affect the precious metal, as are geopolitical issues and supply and demand dynamics. Although Neumeyer believes that the ties that bind silver to gold need to be broken, the reality is that most of the same factors that shape the price of gold also move silver.

For that reason, it’s helpful to look at gold price drivers when trying to understand silver’s price action. Silver is, of course, the more volatile of the two precious metals, but nevertheless it often trades in relative tandem with gold.

Looking first at the Fed and interest rates, it’s useful to understand that higher rates are generally negative for gold and silver, while lower rates tend to be positive. That’s because when rates are higher interest shifts to products that can accrue interest.

When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the Fed cut rates down to zero from 1 to 1.25 percent. However, rising inflation has led the Fed and other central banks to hike rates, which has negatively impacted gold and silver. In February 2023, the Fed raised rates by just 25 basis points, the smallest hike since March 2022, as Chair Jerome Powell said the process of disinflation has begun. The Fed continued these small rate hikes over the next year with the last in July 2023.

In this latest upward cycle of the silver market, Fed interest rate moves are playing an oversized role in pumping up silver prices. In early July, as analysts factored in the rising potential for interest rate cuts in the remainder of 2024, silver prices were once again testing May’s nearly 12-year high, and they topped US$31 in September in the days leading up to the anticipated first rate cut.

While central bank actions are important for gold, and by extension silver, another key price driver lately has been geopolitical uncertainty. The past few years have been filled with major geopolitical events such as tensions between the US and other countries such as North Korea, China and Iran. More recently, the huge economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s war with Ukraine, the banking crisis in early 2023 and rising tensions in the Middle East brought about by the Israel-Hamas war have been sources of concern for investors.

On a separate note, there is also a strong case to made for the metal’s industrial potential. Higher industrial demand from emerging sectors due to factors like the transition to renewable energy and the emergence of AI technology will be highly supportive for the metal over the next few years. Solar panels are an especially exciting sector as manufacturers have found increasing the silver content increases energy efficiency.

Could silver hit $100 per ounce?

While we can’t know if we’ll reach a $100 per ounce silver price in the near future, there is support for Neumeyer’s belief that the metal is undervalued and that “ideal conditions are present for silver prices to rise.”

Many are on board with Neumeyer in the idea that silver’s prospects are bright, including Peter Krauth of Silver Stock Investor, who believes that ‘we are very likely going to experience the greatest silver bull market of our generation.’

So, if the silver price does rise further, how high will it go?

Let’s look at silver’s recent history. The highest price for silver was just under US$50 in the 1970s, and it came close to that level again in 2011. The commodity’s price uptick came on the back of very strong silver investment demand.

After spending the latter half of the 2010s in the teens, the 2020s have seen silver largely hold above US$20. In August 2020, the price of silver reached nearly US$28.50 before pulling back again, and moved back up near those heights in February 2021. The price of silver saw a 2022 high point of US$26.46 in February, and passed US$26 again in both May and November 2023.

Silver rallied in the later part of the first quarter of 2024, and by April 12 was once again flirting with the US$30 mark as it reached an 11 year high of US$29.26. Despite a brief pull back to the US$26 level, the month of May saw the silver price take another run at US$30, this time successfully pushing into US$32 territory on May 19. Silver prices have experienced volatility for much of the third quarter, ranging from a high of US$31.39 on July 11 to a low of US$26.64 on August 7. As of September 11, silver prices are managing to hold above the US$28 range.

Despite the Fed’s upcoming course reversal on interest rates, the white metal is being weighed down by expectations of a looming recession for both the US and the other economic heavyweight on the block China, according to Trading Economics.

Analyst firm Metals Focus has pointed out that the silver market is expected to post a substantial deficit in 2024 of 215.3 million ounces, the second highest in over 20 years.

What do other experts think about US$100 silver?

Many experts in the space expect silver to perform strongly in the years to come, but don’t necessarily see it reaching US$100 or more, especially given the current macroeconomic conditions.

‘As I was doing my research, and this goes back over several years already, I would get to that US$300 forecast for an ultimate high in the silver price in different ways,’ he said, and broke down what a low gold/silver ratio — like we’ve seen the previous times that silver has peaked — could mean for the metal’s price in the future.

“One of the most significant (events) for me was when we saw almost the entire US Treasury yield curve peak above 5 percent in mid-October,’ he said. ‘Since then, we’ve had the US Dollar Index peak at 107. Both of these have fallen considerably since, I believe in the market’s view that the Fed has stopped hiking rates, with the expectation that rate cuts will come sometime in 2024.’

Breaking through the historic US$50 ceiling will likely happen in quick, sharp daily spikes in the modern AI trading environment, he said, and it could potentially be ‘the first step’ toward even higher silver prices, including $100 silver. ‘The key is that people really fully understand and appreciate the actual (supply) deficit of silver,’ Lin noted.

What is the silver price outlook after $30 in 2024?

In 2024, the silver price has finally broken through the long anticipated US$30 mark, a catalyst experts have discussed heavily in recent years.

‘What do I expect for the rest of 2024? I’m going to be conservative … I’m going to say I think we’ll still be in the US$30s — probably in the mid-US$30s,’ he said. ‘I don’t really think silver is going to be in the US$40s by the end of the year. People make arguments that it’ll be US$50, and it could be. But I’m going to remain conservative.’

‘Once silver gets above US$33 and it stays there for three or four days — or better yet, even two or three weeks — there’s not much holding it back to hit US$50 again,’ he said at the time.

While silver didn’t cross that mark in 2022, Morgan shared concerns about what would happen once it did in his forecast for 2023. ‘Last time we got near US$30, very close to it, Rostin Behnam of the (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) came out and said they had to tamp down the silver market. What kind of a free market is that?’

Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, is another analyst who was confident silver had the potential to break the US$30 per ounce level and move higher in 2024.

Why is silver so cheap?

The primary reason that silver is sold at a significant discount to gold is supply and demand, with more silver being mined annually.

There is an abundance of silver — according to the US Geological Survey, to date 1,740,000 metric tons (MT) of silver have been discovered, while only 244,000 MT of gold have been found, a ratio of about 1 ounce of gold to 7.1 ounces of silver. In terms of output, 26,000 MT of silver were mined in 2023 compared to 3,000 MT for gold. Looking at these numbers, that puts gold and silver production at about a 1:8.7 ratio last year, while the price ratio on September 17, 2024, was around 1:84 — a huge disparity.

While silver does have both investment and industrial demand, the global focus on gold as an investment vehicle, including countries stockpiling gold, can overshadow silver. Additionally, jewelry alone is a massive force for gold demand.

Is silver really undervalued?

Many experts believe that silver is undervalued at under US$30 compared to fellow currency metal gold. As discussed, their production and price ratios are currently incredibly disparate. While investment demand is higher for gold, silver has seen increasing time in the limelight in recent years, including a 2021 silver squeeze that saw new entrants to the market join in.

Another factor that lends more intrinsic value to silver is that it’s an industrial metal as well as a precious metal. It has applications in technology and batteries — both growing sectors that will drive demand higher.

Silver’s two sides has been on display in recent years: Silver demand hit record highs in 2022, according to the Silver Institute, with physical silver investment rising by 22 percent and industrial by 5 percent over 2021. For 2023, industrial demand was up 11 percent over the previous year, compared to 28 percent decline in physical silver investment.

Is silver better than gold?

There are merits for both metals, especially as part of a well-balanced portfolio. As many analysts point out, silver has been known to outperform its sister metal gold during times of economic prosperity and expansion.

On the other hand, during economic uncertainty silver values are impacted by declines in fabrication demand.

Silver’s duality as a precious and industrial metal also provides price support. As a report from the CPM Group notes, “it can be seen that silver in fact almost always (but not always) out-performs gold during a gold bull market.”

At what price did Warren Buffet buy silver?

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A,NYSE:BRK.B) bought up 37 percent of global silver supply between 1997 and 2006. Silver ranged from US$4 to US$10 during that period.

In fact, between July 1997 and January 1998 alone, the company bought about 129 million ounces of the metal, much of which was for under US$5. Adjusted for inflation, the company’s purchases in that window cost about US$8.50 to US$11.50.

How to invest in silver?

There are a variety of ways to get into the silver market. For example, investors may choose to put their money into silver-focused stocks by buying shares of companies focused on silver mining and exploration. As a by-product metal, investors can also gain exposure to silver through some gold companies.

There are also silver exchange-traded funds that give broad exposure to silver companies and the metal itself, while more experienced traders may be interested in silver futures. And of course, for those who prefer a more tangible investment, purchasing physical bullion in silver bar and silver coin form is also an option.