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Cobalt metal prices have trended steadily higher since September of last year, entering 2026 at US$56,414 per metric ton and touching highs unseen since July 2022.

The cobalt market staged a dramatic reversal in 2025, shifting from deep oversupply to structural tightening after decisive intervention by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Prices began last year near nine year lows amid a lingering glut, but surged after the DRC, responsible for roughly three-quarters of global supply, imposed an export ban in February, later replaced by strict quotas.

By the end of the year, cobalt metal prices had more than doubled, underscoring how quickly supply-side policy reshaped market fundamentals. What emerged was not a demand-driven recovery, but a supply-led reset. Indonesian output, largely tied to nickel processing, helped cushion the shock but proved insufficient to replace lost Congolese units.

As inventories thinned and quotas capped future exports, the market exited 2025 near balance, setting the stage for a tighter and more volatile cobalt landscape heading into 2026.

Cobalt chokepoints: DRC dominance, China and the Lobito Corridor

With the concentration of cobalt output stemming from two nations, supply chain security has come into focus. An issue Roman Aubry, nickel and cobalt analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence expects to last through 2026.

“2025 has demonstrated the risks associated with having a single country being

He added: “Looking ahead to 2026 it’s clear that the market has to anticipate continued uncertainty from the DRC. While they’ve announced a detailed quota system for the next two years, the DRC reserves the right to adjust it as it sees fit. Given the current ex-DRC cobalt stocks, Benchmark expects there to be significant risk of demand destruction as we approach the end of the year, therefore it is likely the DRC will need to adjust the export quota.”

Concern over China’s control of battery and critical metal supply chains is also likely to carry over through the year, as tensions between Washington and Beijing oscillate and the US looks to fortify its access to the metals.

Aubry pointed to the Lobito Corridor as a key factor in the US securing ex-China supply.

The major rail and port project linking the mineral-rich Copperbelt of the DRC and Zambia to Angola’s Atlantic coast, could reshape the global cobalt supply chain by lowering export costs, speeding transit times and diversifying routes away from China‑dominated infrastructure.

The US International Development Finance Corporation has committed hundreds of millions of dollars in funding to modernize the corridor’s rail and port facilities, potentially boosting annual transport capacity by an order of magnitude and cutting costs by as much as 30 percent compared with existing routes.

“In regards to Western-China relations, we’ve seen the US become increasingly conscious of its reliance on China refining for critical minerals, taking steps to improve ties with the DRC,” said Aubry. “This has mainly come in the form of a strategic agreement to develop the Lobito rail corridor, which would allow the DRC to export cobalt directly to the Atlantic, as well as the establishment of a coordinated Strategic Minerals Reserve within the DRC.”

Is cobalt substitution in the cards?

Before the DRC levied export controls over cobalt exports human rights and child labour concerns around artisinal cobalt extraction plagued the sector.

Paired with the supply chain challenges, battery manufacturers began shifting chemistry away from cobalt-rich formulas, like nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) and lithium-iron-phiosphate (LFP) began growing in market share.

In 2025, demand for nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) battery cells remained strong in markets focused on longer driving range and performance, particularly in North America and Europe, but lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells continued their rapid ascent, driven by cost advantages and growing adoption in China and entry-level electric vehicles (EVs).

Industry forecasts project LFP’s share of global battery cell capacity to exceed 60 percent in 2025, reflecting broader shifts toward lower-cost chemistry amid affordability pressures, while NCM and lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA) cells continue to dominate premium segments where energy density remains critical.

Amid a shrinking EV market share, Aubry pointed to overall growth in the EV segment, as well as cobalt’s other end uses as factors likely to support demand.

“While battery chemistries are expected to shift towards lower-cobalt or cobalt- free chemistries, the volume of EV batteries is expected to more than offset this,” he explained.

“From all applications, cobalt demand is expected to grow almost 80 percent in the next decade,

He added: “Outside of the EV space, portables are an area of significant growth, particularly batteries for newer technologies like drones. Industrial applications also present a stable source of growth.”

Market volatility drives need for raw materials hedging

During a presentation at Benchmark Week 2025, Casper Rawles, COO at Benchmark Intelligence, highlighted the growing value of hedging for companies operating in the battery raw materials space.

According to Benchmark data, raw materials could account for 20 percent to 40 percent of battery costs by 2030, exceeding 50 percent for some chemistries.

For EV manufacturers such as BYD (OTCPL:BYDDF), annual spending on critical battery materials could exceed US$2 billion, leaving margins highly exposed to price swings.

Against that backdrop, Rawles underscored the need for more sophisticated hedging strategies, noting that shifts in sentiment, supply, demand and geopolitics can reprice these markets with little warning.

Hedging allows companies to manage commodity price volatility by offsetting exposure in the physical market with positions in the futures market.

Producers and consumers typically hedge either to lock in prices that protect margins or to secure fixed pricing tied to external contracts, buying or selling futures to counterbalance their underlying risk. In practice, firms can tailor these strategies to reduce price exposure partially or eliminate it altogether, depending on their risk tolerance.

As Rawles explained, cobalt’s 2025 price rebound emphasizes how exposed the market is to geopolitics, with the DRC’s export controls triggering a rapid reversal from oversupply to scarcity.

“Ultimately we saw an export quota being put in place. Now that quota is pretty limited,’ said Rawles.

‘When we think about the type of volumes we’re expecting to be needed by the market it’s really not going to be sufficient to fulfill market demand. That really shows how quickly the fortunes of these minerals can change,” he added, noting that the DRC’s dominance gives it outsized influence over global pricing.

Rawles stressed that cobalt volatility is no longer driven by supply and demand alone, but by sentiment and geopolitics, with major implications for battery makers and automakers, where raw materials account for a large share of costs.

“Even if you think you know the outlook at the start of the year, that can change in a heartbeat,” he said.

Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

Jim Wiederhold, commodity indices product manager at Bloomberg, shares his commodities outlook for 2026, saying that while precious metals dominated last year, there’s potential for a rotation toward industrial metals like copper in the year ahead.

‘The fundamental story for industrial is very strong,’ he said.

‘There’s potential huge supply/demand imbalances coming in the future.’

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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President Donald Trump lashed out at Minnesota Democrats on social media Sunday, saying they were using the ongoing federal operations to distract from the state’s massive fraud issue.

Trump made the statement on his Truth Social media platform, saying federal agents in Minneapolis and St. Paul were targeting ‘violent criminals.’

‘ICE is removing some of the most violent criminals in the World from our Country, and bring them back home, where they belong. Why is Minnesota fighting this? Do they really want murderers and drug dealers to be ensconced in their community? The thugs that are protesting include many highly paid professional agitators and anarchists. Is this really what Minnesota wants?’ Trump wrote.

Trump went on to call out Gov. Tim Walz and Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., saying they ‘don’t mind because it keeps the focus of attention off the 18 Billion Dollar, Plus, FRAUD, that has taken place in the State!’ 

‘Don’t worry, we’re on it!’ Trump added.

Federal agents have faced harassment and protests from agitators in Minnesota in recent weeks. Federal prosecutors are investigating both Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey for allegedly impeding law enforcement efforts in the blue state.

U.S. Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche told Fox News the duo’s anti-ICE rhetoric was teetering on a federal crime.

‘When the governor or the mayor threaten our officers, when the mayor suggests that he’s encouraging citizens to call 911 when they see ICE officers, that is very close to a federal crime,’ Blanche said.

Bondi added on X, ‘A reminder to all those in Minnesota: No one is above the law.’

Walz responded to the news on Friday by accusing the Trump administration of ‘weaponizing the justice system.’

‘Two days ago, it was Elissa Slotkin. Last week it was Jerome Powell. Before that, Mark Kelly,’ Walz wrote in an X post. ‘Weaponizing the justice system against your opponents is an authoritarian tactic. The only person not being investigated for the shooting of Renee Good is the federal agent who shot her.’

Frey also weighed in on social media, asserting he ‘will not be intimidated.’

‘This is an obvious attempt to intimidate me for standing up for Minneapolis, local law enforcement, and residents against the chaos and danger this Administration has brought to our city,’ Frey wrote on X. ‘I will not be intimidated. My focus remains where it’s always been: keeping our city safe.

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Greenland rarely draws global attention. But as ice melts and great powers inch closer, the world’s largest island has become a strategic prize — one that caught President Donald Trump’s eye long before most Americans were paying attention.

A semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, Greenland is home to a key U.S. military base and has become increasingly important to global security and trade as melting ice opens new shipping lanes and access to natural resources.

That shift underscores the serious geopolitical calculation behind Trump’s interest in the island’s location, military value and the rapidly changing Arctic.

Greenland is divided into five municipalities, with most of its roughly 56,000 residents living in small coastal towns, leaving the island’s vast interior largely uninhabited. Put another way, Greenland has roughly one person for every 1,000 soccer fields of land. 

Greenland’s sparse population is largely a product of its geography. Roughly 80% of the island is covered by an ice sheet formed about 3 million years ago, leaving vast areas of the territory uninhabitable.

Despite its small population, Greenland occupies a landmass comparable to global powers. By land area, it ranks among the world’s largest territories — a scale that has drawn attention from countries such as the United States, Russia and China as competition in the Arctic intensifies. It is nearly the size of Alaska and Texas combined.

Greenland’s location off Canada’s northeastern coast places it at the heart of Arctic defense planning. The U.S. has maintained a military outpost in northwestern Greenland since 1953 at the Pituffik Space Base, now operated by the U.S. Space Force.

Russia also maintains several military installations in the region, while China has sought greater access since declaring itself a ‘near-Arctic state’ in 2018.

But geography isn’t the only reason Greenland draws global interest. Retreating Arctic ice is opening shipping lanes around the island that could significantly shorten trade routes between North America, Europe and Asia, adding an economic layer to its strategic importance.

The changing landscape has also drawn attention to Greenland’s deposits of rare earth elements and other critical minerals essential to modern technology, renewable energy and military systems.

Rare earth elements — a group of 17 minerals — sit at the center of modern economies and militaries. They allow electronics to be smaller, more powerful and more efficient and are especially important in high-performance magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, generators and precision guidance systems.

Their importance is even more pronounced in defense, where rare earths are used in missile guidance, radar, sonar, satellites and advanced aircraft. Because many of these applications have no easy substitutes, access to rare earths directly affects military readiness and technological advantage.

The world’s largest rare earth deposits are found in China, Vietnam, Brazil, Russia, Australia, Greenland and the United States. But China dominates the supply chain, accounting for roughly 60% of global mining and more than 90% of processing capacity.

The United States lacks a reliable, end-to-end supply chain for rare earths, leaving it dependent on foreign sources. 

As the U.S. and European Union seek to reduce their reliance on China, Greenland has emerged as a potential counterweight to Beijing’s dominance and a focal point in the competition over critical minerals.

Whether the Trump administration is able to strike a deal to take over Greenland remains unclear. But as ice melts and competition in the Arctic intensifies, the island’s strategic importance is only likely to grow.

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The United States has extended invitations to multiple foreign governments to join President Donald Trump’s ‘Board of Peace,’ with at least six countries confirming on Sunday that they were invited.

The Associated Press reported the six countries are: Jordan, Greece, Cyprus, Pakistan, Hungary and India.

Canada, Turkey, Egypt, Paraguay, Argentina and Albania have already said they too were invited, according to the outlet.

The White House on Friday released a statement outlining the next phase of Trump’s Gaza peace plan, naming senior international figures to oversee governance, reconstruction and long-term development of the enclave.

‘The Board of Peace will play an essential role in fulfilling all 20 points of the President’s plan, providing strategic oversight, mobilizing international resources, and ensuring accountability as Gaza transitions from conflict to peace and development,’ the statement said in part.

Trump will chair the board and be joined by a group of senior political, diplomatic and business figures, including his son-in-law Jared Kushner, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and billionaire Marc Rowan, among others.

The Gaza Executive Board, which supports governance and the delivery of services, will work alongside the Office of the High Representative and the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza to advance ‘peace, stability, and prosperity.’

Notably, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Qatari diplomat Ali Al-Thawadi were named as appointed members.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said on X that the composition of the Gaza Executive Board was not coordinated with Israel and ‘runs contrary to its policy.’

Netanyahu’s office said it told Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar to contact Rubio to convey Israel’s concerns.

Under Trump’s plan, Hamas was to turn over all living and deceased hostages that were still being held in Gaza. To date, one dead hostage, Ran Gvili, has yet to be handed over.

The White House said additional Executive Board and Gaza Executive Board members will be announced over the coming weeks.

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The Nobel Foundation weighed in Sunday after Venezuela’s opposition leader gifted her Nobel Peace Prize to President Donald Trump.

Maria Corina Machado gave her Peace Prize to Trump during a meeting at the White House last week. The Nobel Foundation pushed back on the legitimacy of such a transfer on Sunday, however.

‘One of the core missions of the Nobel Foundation is to safeguard the dignity of the Nobel Prizes and their administration. The Foundation upholds Alfred Nobel’s will and its stipulations. It states that the prizes shall be awarded to those who ‘have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind,’ and it specifies who has the right to award each respective prize,’ the foundation wrote in a statement.

‘A prize can therefore not, even symbolically, be passed on or further distributed,’ the statement continued.

Machado explained her decision to give Trump her award in an interview with Fox News.

‘He deserves it,’ Machado told ‘FOX & Friends Weekend’ co-host Rachel Campos-Duffy. ‘It was a very emotional moment.’

Machado said she presented the prize to the president on behalf of the Venezuelan people, crediting him for the historic work he did in liberating the country from its dictator Nicolás Maduro.

‘[Venezuelans] appreciate so much what he has done for, not only the freedom of the Venezuelan people, but I would say the whole hemisphere,’ she said.

As a longtime Maduro critic, Machado has been vocal in supporting Trump’s unprecedented removal of the disgraced Venezuelan leader, prompting her to credit him with the prize for the historic capture.

Trump appeared pleased and gratified by Machado’s gesture.

‘It was my Great Honor to meet María Corina Machado, of Venezuela, today,’ Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. ‘María presented me with her Nobel Peace Prize for the work I have done. Such a wonderful gesture of mutual respect.’

The Norwegian Nobel Institute had tried to shut down the transfer before Machado met with Trump earlier this month.

‘Once a Nobel Prize is announced, it cannot be revoked, shared, or transferred to others,’ the institute said in a statement. ‘The decision is final and stands for all time.’

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Russia is preparing to target Europe’s biggest nuclear power plant’s power lines in a move that could unfold within days, according to a source familiar with the matter.

Ukrainian officials had said Moscow’s plan was focused on high-voltage transmission infrastructure rather than direct strikes on nuclear reactors, but a source has since claimed the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant lines (ZNPP) are Moscow’s focus.

In a statement released Jan. 17, the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry (HUR) had warned that Russia was weighing attacks on substations critical to nuclear power generation.

‘In order to force Ukraine to sign unacceptable surrender demands to end the war, the aggressor state Russia is considering the option of attacking strategic facilities of our state’s energy system — we are talking about electricity transmission substations that ensure the operation of Ukrainian nuclear power plants.’

‘The threat is at ZNPP,’ a source told Fox News Digital. ‘There are talks of a massive attack either tonight or in the coming nights,’ the source said on condition of anonymity, adding that ‘the talks within the Ukrainian government are about ZNPP and the lines, and these talks have not been for the first time.’

According to The Associated Press, Russia also targeted energy infrastructure in Odesa region overnight Sunday, according to Ukraine’s Emergency Service.

ZNPP is located in southern Ukraine and consists of six VVER-1000 pressurized water reactors, and has been under Russian occupation since March 2022, according to reports.

Although the reactors are no longer producing electricity, the plant needs external power to maintain cooling and safety systems. 

The IAEA has repeatedly warned that disruptions to off-site power supplies and lines pose a serious nuclear safety risk.

A Jan. 16 localized ceasefire was agreed between Russia and Ukraine for repairs under IAEA coordination on one backup power line at ZNPP that had already been damaged.

In a statement, IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said Jan. 16: ‘The IAEA continues to work closely with both sides to ensure nuclear safety at the ZNPP and to prevent a nuclear accident during the conflict. This temporary ceasefire, the fourth we have negotiated, demonstrates the indispensable role that we continue to play.’

‘A deterioration of Ukraine’s power grid from persistent military activity has direct implications on the nuclear safety of its nuclear facilities,’ Grossi said.

‘Russia is said to be going to do this strike, maybe even tonight,’ the source said of the ZNPP operation.

‘Information also from the Ukrainian Parliament and Ukrainian Security Service, or internally, is that the Russian army told the Ukrainian army that if they don’t stop shelling their tankers in the sea or shelling their oil refineries, as well as their electric stations like power stations,’ the source said, ‘then they will fully destroy Kyiv energy facilities aswell.’

‘The parliament knows this. But we keep shelling,’ the source added.

‘This is a very difficult situation,’ the source continued, saying Ukrainian leadership, the Ukrainian parliament and ‘obviously the office of the president’ are fully aware that ‘if we keep shelling Russian tankers and oil refineries, then they will destroy everything that we have.’

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also recently urged NATO allies to urgently deliver additional air-defense missiles, warning that some systems are running low on ammunition, according to reports.

‘To actually preserve the energy in the country when it is minus 20 outside and people are literally suffering hugely,’ the source added. ‘People don’t have electricity, don’t have warmth and some don’t even have water.’

‘And this is a very controversial situation,’ the source said, ‘particularly for the Ukrainian people sitting inside, hungry and freezing, and overall being in this disastrous humanitarian situation.’

Fox News Digital has reached out to President Zelenskyy’s office for comment.

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Iranian protesters are facing their deadliest days yet as security forces unleash mass killings and executions in a sweeping crackdown some have labeled ‘genocide,’ new reports say.

According to The Sunday Times, a report compiled by doctors entrenched in the region and reviewed by the outlet, estimates that security forces have killed at least 16,500 protesters and injured more than 330,000 others.

The report also described the violence as an ‘utter slaughter,’ warning that the true toll may be even higher due to restricted access to hospitals and the near-total shutdown of communications.

Most of the victims, the report says, are believed to be under the age of 30, underscoring the heavy toll on Iran’s younger generation as the regime intensifies its efforts to crush dissent.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei acknowledged Sunday that ‘several thousands’ have been killed since protests erupted Dec. 28.

In a televised address, he blamed demonstrators, calling them ‘foot-soldiers of the U.S.’ and falsely claiming protesters were armed with imported live ammunition.

Meanwhile, Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported that as of day 22 of the protests, verified figures show 3,919 people killed, with 8,949 additional deaths under investigation, 2,109 severely injured, and 24,669 detainees.

HRANA noted that the true toll is likely far higher due to the internet shutdown.

Professor Amir Parasta, an Iranian-German eye surgeon and medical director of Munich MED, said in The Sunday Times report that doctors across Iran are ‘shocked and crying,’ despite having experience treating war injuries.

‘This is a whole new level of brutality,’ Parasta said. He added that Starlink terminals smuggled into Iran have been the only means of communication since authorities cut internet access on Jan. 8.

Eyewitnesses who fled Iran also described snipers targeting protesters’ heads, mass shootings and systematic blinding using pellet guns.

One former Iranian resident said in the report that doctors reported more than 800 eye removals in a single night in the capital alone, with possibly more than 8,000 people blinded nationwide.

‘This is genocide under the cover of digital darkness,’ Parasta said.

Alongside the street killings, executions have surged dramatically, according to Ali Safavi, a senior official with the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI).

Safavi told Fox News Digital that 2,200 people were executed in 2025, while 153 have already been hanged in the first 18 days of January 2026, averaging more than eight executions per day.

‘Ali Khamenei is continuing mass executions in parallel with the killing of young protesters,’ Safavi said. ‘Three executions in the form of hanging are now happening every hour according to our data.’

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi previously disputed high death tolls reported in an interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier, claiming fatalities were only in the hundreds and dismissing higher figures as ‘misinformation.’

President Donald Trump sharply condemned Khamenei over the weekend, calling him a ‘sick man’ and urging new leadership in Iran.

In an interview with Politico, Trump accused Khamenei of overseeing ‘the complete destruction of the country’ and using ‘violence at levels never seen before,’ adding that Iran’s leadership should ‘stop killing people.’

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Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., said on Sunday that the U.S. is engaged in an ‘ongoing war’ with Venezuela following what he described as recent U.S. actions involving the country.

During an appearance on NBC’s ‘Meet the Press,’ Paul said the U.S. continues to be in conflict with Venezuela over its oil.

‘That is an act of war, it’s an ongoing war, to continue to take their oil, ongoing war, to distribute it,’ Paul said.

‘I still hope it works out for the best, but we are still involved in an active war with Venezuela,’ he continued.

The senator added that ‘we still have hundreds of ships with a 100% blockade of the coast.’

This comes after the U.S. operation to attack Venezuela and arrest its president, Nicolás Maduro, and the Trump administration’s subsequent seizing of an oil tanker from the country.

Venezuela is one of the biggest producers of oil, and its oil industry has become a focus of the Trump administration. Officials said oil sales to the U.S. will start immediately with an initial shipment of about 30 million to 50 million barrels and that the shipments will continue indefinitely.

‘This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!’ Trump previously wrote on Truth Social.

Trump has also said that the U.S. would continue ‘running’ Venezuela for much longer than a few months. Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have said it will take time for Venezuela, now led by interim acting President Delcy Rodriguez, to reach a place where it can hold elections.

More than half of U.S. voters oppose the Trump administration running Venezuela, according to a poll from Quinnipiac University.

Paul is part of a bipartisan group of lawmakers who want to limit Trump’s ability to conduct further attacks against Venezuela after the U.S. military’s recent move to strike the country and capture Maduro, which the Kentucky Republican has said amounts to war.

The group attempted to pass a War Powers resolution last week to block the president from additional intervention without congressional approval, but the effort failed in the Senate.

‘The only problem about a war powers vote now is that, since it hasn’t happened, there are a lot of Republicans who say, ‘Oh, that’s prospective. I’m not going to tie his hands prospectively,” Paul said on Sunday. 

‘The problem is, if you wait until after an invasion, whereas the administration argues, we don’t know it’s a war until we count the casualties. That’s sort of a crazy definition of war, because our job is to initiate or declare war,’ he added.

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