It is not yet clear if this is the start of a major spring offensive by Vladimir Putin’s forces, of which Ukraine has been warning for some time. However, it appears to suggest the Russian leader is unconcerned about upsetting US President Donald Trump, who will make up his mind “in a matter of weeks” if the Kremlin is serious about peace, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, said last week.

Where is the current fighting?

For several months, some of the fiercest fighting has been taking place to the south of the town of Pokrovsk – a one-time key logistics hub for Ukraine’s armed forces in the Donetsk region.

Ukraine’s army has achieved several small tactical successes since the start of the year, pushing back some of the Russian advance towards Pokrovsk, which had bought it to within just a few kilometers of the town center.

But with Pokrovsk itself heavily defended and the military supplies previously situated there largely relocated, Russia’s main effort in the area could be to push westward, rather than north.

Social media posts by Ukrainian soldiers in the last few days describe fears of possible encirclement in one location and breach of a defensive line in another.

“The frontline in this area has entered an active phase. The Russians will not stop,” one Ukrainian with the call-sign Muchnoi wrote on Telegram.

The aim of the advance is a town called Novopavlivka, he said.

“They will enter the Dnipropetrovsk region – this is one of the key tasks set by the Russian command.”

Moving into Dnipropetrovsk would be a significant moment because it would be the first time Russian troops have set foot there. Indeed, it would be the first new Ukrainian region to come under part-Russian occupation since the earlyweeks of the full-scale invasion more than three years ago.

The Ukrainian mapping service DeepState puts Putin’s forces just six kilometers (3.7 miles) away from the region while people living along the border are already being evacuated, Dnipropetrovsk officials say.

For Putin – and quite possibly American negotiators as well – any Russian control over a part of Dnipropetrovsk could be seen as a useful bargaining chip in a future negotiation.

Surges along the front line?

Luhansk is Ukraine’s easternmost region and the one where Putin’s forces have most control – just a few pockets remain in Ukrainian hands. Here, too, Russian troops have made steady gains in recent weeks, particularly the north of the town of Lyman, a railway hub and rear support base for Ukraine’s troops.

“It’s hard, we need to work on stabilizing the front and methodically knocking out the enemy, otherwise the gangrene will spread,” one Ukrainian officer wrote on Telegram.

Before that date, the average number of daily clashes in March had been around 140 (excluding an outlier on March 11). Since then, while tallies have fluctuated, the average has been around 180 clashes per day, an increase of about 30%.

The data includes the Kursk region in Russia, where Ukraine is now holding on to just a few villages along the border, after a slow but successful Russian rollback of Kyiv’s surprise gains last summer. The ground advances are also seeing Russia make inroads into Ukraine’s neighbouring Sumy region, creating small grey zones where neither side is in complete control.

Further complicating the picture along the northern border is Ukraine’s incursion into a slither of Russia’s Belgorod region, confirmed by Kyiv for the first time on Monday.

How are the Russians fighting?

Ukrainian soldiers report a variety of Russian tactics in recent weeks.

In the south of Donetsk region, a Ukrainian officer with the call sign Alex described Russian troops moving forward in columns consisting of both armored and soft-skin vehicles– about four to five infantry fighting vehicles and tanks, while “the rest are trucks, cars and golf carts.”

He did not hide his scepticism at the prospects for major Russian advances if current maneuvers reveal a real shortage of armor.

“Yes, they have a lot of manpower, several times more than we do, but whatever one says, in a war in the 21st century, it is impossible to build on any successes and launch a rapid offensive without mechanized means of delivering and supporting infantry,” Alex wrote on Telegram.

Also writing on Telegram, Ukrainian commander Stanislav Buniatov said Russian forces there were suffering heavy losses but continued undeterred. “One unit in this area loses ten to 50 Russians per day,” he said.

“The Russians are operating in small tactical groups of five to seven men, maximum 10 people. As soon as it’s foggy or rainy, they start advancing using bad weather as cover from our drones.”

As spring progresses and the weather turns drier, tactics will change, the drone commander says.

“They can’t use heavy vehicles at the moment. It’s too wet, they will get stuck. As soon as the land dries up, they will make a move; it’s not in doubt, they will charge for sure.”

Reality checks

Despite the downbeat assessments, it is important to keep some perspective. The amount of territory Russia is capturing remains small. For instance, its forces southwest of Pokrovsk, bearing down on Dnipropetrovsk region, are only about 45 kilometers (28 miles) further advanced than they were one year ago.

In fact, Britain’s Ministry of Defence, in common with other analysts, assesses Russia’s rate of advance to have been in steady decline for six months, from about 730 square kilometers captured in November last year to just 143 last month.

Part of this may well be down to the challenges of warfighting in winter, though the US military’s senior commander in Europe, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, in an upbeat testimony to Congress last week, said Kyiv’s forces had “assumed very strong defensive positions,” and were “well dug in.”

“It is very hard to envision Ukraine collapsing and losing that conflict,” Cavoli concluded.

Even so, land warfare analyst Nick Reynolds, of the Royal United Services Institute in London, cautions against thinking that because Russia has not taken much territory, it is not achieving anything.

Russia’s territorial claims, he says, will not be achieved through military advance, tree line by tree line, village by village.

“The aim is attrition, and the goal is not immediate. The goal is to kill people, to destroy equipment, to suck in resources, to bankrupt the Ukrainian state and to break its will to fight.”

Even weak Russian offensives, he says, need some defense by Ukraine, which in turn allows for better mapping of Ukrainian defensive positions, providing targets for artillery or glide bomb attacks.

Prognosis

Even in a best-case scenario, Europe’s stepped-up efforts to re-arm Ukraine, amid doubts over US military support, will likely take a few years to come to fruition. While Ukraine’s own defense industry has made great strides, it remains more economically dependent on its allies than Russia’s, analysts say.

Under pressure from Washington, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains publicly committed to an end to the war, as long as any peace agreement is just and secure and does not allow Russia to resume fighting later.

For its part, the Kremlin says it wants peace too, but only if the “root causes” of the conflict are addressed, which in essence means Ukraine must fall back unequivocally into Moscow’s sphere of influence.

But Putin’s announcement last week of the largest conscription round in more than 10 years, and his stated ambition to build an army with 1.5 million active servicemen, along with an aerial onslaught that shows no signs of slowing, point more to a campaign of attrition than any intention to stop.

For fighters on the front lines, even high-ranking officers, peace talks mean little.

Victoria Butenko contributed reporting.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday said it has reached a preliminary agreement with Argentina on a $20 billion bailout, providing a welcome reprieve to President Javier Milei as he seeks to overturn the country’s old economic order.

As a staff-level agreement, the rescue package still requires final approval from the IMF’s executive board. The board will convene in the coming days, the IMF statement said.

The fund’s long-awaited announcement offered a lifeline to President Milei, who has cut inflation and stabilized Argentina’s troubled economy with a free-market austerity agenda. His policies have reversed the reckless borrowing of left-wing populist governments that had brought Argentina infamy for defaulting on its debts. The country has received more IMF bailouts than any other.

It came at a critical moment for South America’s second-biggest economy. Pressure had been mounting on Argentina’s rapidly depleting foreign exchange reserves as the government tightened rules on money-printing and burned through its scarce dollars to prop up the wobbly Argentine peso.

Fears grew that if the government failed to secure an IMF loan, hard-won austerity measures would veer off-track and leave Argentina, once again, unable to service its huge debts or pay its import bills.

The fresh cash gives Milei a serious shot at easing Argentina’s strict foreign exchange controls, which could help convince markets of his program’s sustainability. For the past six years, the capital restrictions have dissuaded investment, preventing companies from sending profits abroad and ensuring the central bank’s careful management of the peso, which is pegged to the dollar.

Racking up 22 IMF loans since 1958, Argentina owes the IMF more than $40 billion. Most IMF funds have been used to repay the IMF itself, giving the organization a fraught reputation among Argentines. Many blame the lender for the country’s historic economic implosion and debt default in 2001.

The IMF was wary of striking yet another deal with its largest debtor. But over the past 16 months, fund officials have praised Milei’s austerity — a diet harsher than even the fund’s typical prescription.

A former TV personality and self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist,” Milei came to power on a vow to shrink Argentina’s bloated bureaucracy, kill spiraling inflation, open the economy to international markets and woo foreign investors after years of isolation.

Unlike Argentine politicians in years past who sought to avoid enraging the masses with brutal austerity, Milei has taken his chainsaw to the state, firing tens of thousands of state employees, dissolving or downgrading a dozen ministries, gutting the education sector, cutting inflation adjustments for pensions, freezing public works projects, lifting price controls and slashing subsidies.

Critics note that the poor have paid the highest price for Argentina’s rosy macroeconomic indicators. Retirees have been protesting weekly against low pensions, with the decrease in payments accounting for the largest share of Milei’s budget cuts. Major labor unions announced a 36-hour general strike starting Wednesday in solidarity.

Still, Milei has maintained solid approval ratings, a surprise that analysts attribute to his success in driving down inflation, which dropped to 118% from 211% annually during his first year in office. Flipping budget deficits to surpluses has sent the local stock market booming and its country-risk rating, a pivotal barometer of investor confidence, tumbling.

“The agreement builds on the authorities’ impressive early progress in stabilizing the economy, underpinned by a strong fiscal anchor, that is delivering rapid disinflation,” the IMF said in announcing the agreement under a 48-month arrangement. “The program supports the next phase of Argentina’s homegrown stabilization and reform agenda.”

It remained unclear how much money Argentina would receive upfront — a key sticking point in the most recent negotiations over the deal’s details. Argentina is seeking a hefty payment upfront to replenish its reserves, even as IMF loans are usually disbursed over several years.

Milei shared the IMF statement on social media platform X, attaching a photo that showed him hugging Economy Minister Luis Caputo. “Vavos!” he wrote — apparently misspelling “Vamos!” or “Let’s go!” in his excitement.

Germany’s two major centrist parties have reached a coalition deal, the culmination of weeks of negotiations after the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) emerged as winner in February’s federal election.

Designated chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU party emerged victorious in February’s vote but failed to win a majority, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surging into second place and almost doubling its supporter base.

Since then, the CDU has been locked in formal coalition talks with the SPD – Germany’s other main centrist party, which had led a three-way coalition government until its collapse in November 2024.

Pressure in Berlin to reach a deal had only mounted in the face of wider uncertainty, including the Trump administration’s introduction of sweeping import tariffs that have reshaped global trade.

As Germany’s likely next chancellor, Merz has pledged to boost the country’s defense spending. Berlin has moved to lift its so-called “debt brake” in order to loosen borrowing limits and allow for new investments in defense.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was looking for the easy political victories that once gushed from US President Donald Trump, he left the Oval Office empty-handed.

The meeting was supposed to be about the two leaders negotiating the new 17% tariff the White House imposed on Israeli exports last week. In a gamble to avoid them, Israel had dropped its own tariffs on American products to zero a day earlier, even though they were only imposed on very few items.

Seated next to Trump in the White House, Netanyahu said Israel would eliminate trade barriers and trade deficits “very quickly.” With his usual effusive praise of Trump, the long-serving Israeli leader said, “We are going to eliminate the tariffs and rapidly.”

It made no difference to Trump. He pointed out that Israel gets $4 billion a year from the United States – “Congratulations, by the way. That’s pretty good,” he said – but he would not commit to changing his plans.

“Maybe not, maybe not,” he said when asked if he would reduce the tariffs.

For years, Netanyahu grew accustomed to political gifts from Trump, especially during the first Trump administration. Moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing the occupied Golan Heights as part of Israel, normalizing relations between Israel and two Arab Gulf countries, and many more – Netanyahu was always eager to celebrate these decisions and the president who made them.

Netanyahu was quick to point out that he was not only the first foreign leader to visit Trump during his second term, he was also the first to meet him to negotiate tariffs. But this meeting left Netanyahu with no clear deliverables or US promises for which he could take credit.

The biggest blow of all was on one of Netanyahu’s favorite topic: Iran. For days before the highly anticipated meeting, Israeli media were rife with speculation that the two leaders would discuss military strikes on Iran. The top Sunday headline in Israel’s most prominent newspaper, Yedioth Ahronoth, shouted “IRAN FIRST” and said the Islamic Republic would need to suffer a “heavy blow” before negotiating. The presence of at least six US B-2 stealth bombers in the Indian Ocean and a second aircraft carrier in the Middle East only fueled speculation in Israel that a strike was not only possible, but increasingly probable.

Ultimately, the biggest headline was about Iran, but almost certainly not in the way Netanyahu expected.

Trump announced that the US and Iran were about to begin talks on the potential for a new nuclear agreement. Netanyahu has been aware that Trump was pursuing talks with Iran, but the sudden revelation of the imminent talks – set to begin Saturday – appeared to surprise the prime minister. The smile quickly vanished from his face as he looked toward his team of advisers.

Before flying back to Israel, Netanyahu laid out his position.

“We agree that Iran will not have nuclear weapons. This can be done by an agreement, but only if this agreement is Libyan style,” he said, referring to a 2003 deal under which Libya voluntarily agreed to fully dismantle its nascent nuclear program. But if Iran drags out the talks, Netanyahu said he discussed the military option “at length” with Trump.

In Israel, the damage was already done.

“If (Trump) started the negotiation without our knowledge, it means that he’s going to represent the American interest only,” said Ronni Shaked, a researcher with the Truman Institute at Hebrew University. If Israel knew in advance, Netanyahu could have contributed with “some ideas, some new facts, some new intelligence,” Shaked said. “But here it’s nothing, nothing at all.”

Trump’s effusive praise of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – one of Israel’s most vociferous critics since the start of the war in Gaza – was another surprising line in a press conference full of them.

Last year, Erdogan called on God to “punish” Netanyahu and said at an election rally, “We will send the person called Netanyahu to Allah.” For months, Erdogan has kept up a steady stream of anti-Israel – and specifically anti-Netanyahu – rhetoric.

Sitting right next to Netanyahu, Trump heaped praise on Erdogan. “I have great relations with a man named Erdogan,” Trump said. “He’s a tough guy. He’s very smart.” Trump said he thought he could work out any disagreement between Turkey and Israel.

“I think it was especially embarrassing for Netanyahu, because last week, Erdogan said he thinks Israel should be destroyed or eliminated,” said Alon Liel, Israel’s former ambassador to Turkey. “It was a very small part (of the press conference), but very meaningful.”

During a speech marking the Muslim holiday of Eid al Fitr on March 31, Erdogan called on God to “condemn Israel to misery.”

Trump did give Netanyahu some political cover back home. The two leaders said they’re working on another deal to bring Israeli hostages back from Gaza. Trump said Netanyahu was working on it constantly, even as the Israeli leader faces continued criticism that he’s not doing enough to return the hostages.

Trump said he’d like to see the war stop “and I think the war will stop at some point, that won’t be in the too-distant future.” For Netanyahu, a ceasefire would be a poisoned chalice, since his government relies on the support of far-right parties that adamantly oppose an end to the war.

Referring to Netanyahu by his nickname, Shaked said, “Bibi is coming back home with empty, empty hands. Not Iran, not Gaza, not the kidnapped people. Nothing at all.”

Three Americans have been transferred to the United States after their death sentences over a foiled deadly coup were commuted to life imprisonment last week by Congolese authorities, in the wake of talks with US government officials.

The Americans, Marcel Malanga, Tyler Thompson Jr., and Benjamin Reuben Zalman-Polun were among 37 people sentenced to death by a military court in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in September for participating in the failed coup led by Malanga’s father, Christian.

At least six people, including Christian Malanga, an opposition politician were killed in a gun battle with presidential guards as the putschists sought to overthrow the government last May.

She earlier said the clemency decision was filed by the public prosecutor and recommended by the DRC justice minister.

DRC’s presidency said in a statement Tuesday that the repatriation of the Americans to the US was “part of a dynamic effort to strengthen judicial diplomacy and international cooperation in matters of justice and human rights between the two countries.”

The repatriation appears to soften the ground for a mooted minerals-for-security partnership between the US and the DRC as war rages in the country’s resource-rich eastern region between government forces and a rebel group.

Last week, DRC President Felix Tshisekedi held talks with the visiting US Senior Adviser for Africa Massad Boulos, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Corina Sanders in the capital Kinshasa.

Those discussions “yielded agreement on two important goals: A lasting peace that affirms the territorial integrity of the DRC (and) strengthening of economic ties, including private sector investment in the mining sector,” Salama wrote in a post on X on April 3.