EVs and the autonomous revolution

Electrified transport has been a major sector driving global energy transition investment, accounting for US$757 billion in 2024, according to BloombergNEF’s Energy Transition Outlook for 2025.

The 2025 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in January highlighted the convergence of EVs and autonomous driving, with Google’s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) EV subsidiary Waymo announcing an expansion of its partnership with Hyundai Motor (OTC Pink:HYEVF,KRX:005380) and a new collaboration to integrate the NVIDIA-powered EV Zeeker RT into its fleet.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang, who kicked off the event by delivering a keynote speech, touted the success of Waymo and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) as a symbol of the “arrival” of autonomous vehicles.

Huang later disclosed during an interview with Yahoo Finance’s Dan Howley that NVIDIA’s technology for autonomous driving is projected to generate US$5 billion in annual sales.

Waymo has since announced plans to expand its self-driving testing to 10 more cities in the US this year and has expanded its services in the San Francisco Bay Area.

In March, the company teamed up with Uber (NYSE:UBER) to offer robotaxis in Austin, Texas — ahead of Tesla’s planned June launch — with plans to expand into Atlanta later this year.

Tesla

Tesla faced a period of mixed performance this quarter, its stock price experiencing a 2.9 percent drop after Bank of America Global Research changed its rating from “buy” to “neutral” in early January. Analysts cited high execution risks as near-term growth impediments, including the delayed launch of its robotaxi and low-cost models.

An NHTSA investigation into Tesla’s Smart Summon system initiated a further downturn in its stock price. This was compounded by a substantial drop in the week of January 20 amidst Trump’s declaration of an “energy emergency” and evolving policy conditions. Subsequently, a February 2025 report indicated a weakening brand value stemming from revenue shortfalls and heightened competition, particularly from China, where companies like BYD and Xiaomi have eaten into Tesla’s market share.

BYD (OTC Pink:BYDDY,SZSE:002594) surpassed Tesla’s revenue for Q4 2024, and analysts predict it will lead in global battery electric vehicle (BEV) market share for the full year.

The company also unveiled a new EV battery system and platform in March 2025 that boasts an ultra-fast charging capability, which will be featured in its new series launching in April.

Xiaomi (OTC Pink:XIACY,HKEX:1810), another significant Chinese player in the EV market, reported 365.9 billion Chinese yuan (US$50.6 billion) in annual revenue in its 2024 earnings report, with 10 percent from its new EV division.

Xiaomi also lifted its 2025 delivery target for EVs to 350,000, up from an earlier figure of 300,000, with plans to release an electric SUV this summer, pitting it against Tesla’s recently refreshed Model Y.

Tesla, which has plans to launch in Saudi Arabia on April 10, didn’t provide a vehicle delivery estimate in its Q4 report, saying only that it expected a “return to growth.’

Policy

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s involvement in US politics has also weighed on the company.

Daniel Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst who’s been bullish of Tesla stock for the last four years, reduced his Tesla share price target to US$315 from US$550. In a client report shared by Bloomberg on April 6, Ives cites a brand crisis created by Musk’s connection to Trump’s trade policies.

Protests erupted across the country and in Canada in reaction to Musk’s increasingly prominent role in the Trump administration, specifically his seemingly unrestricted access to sensitive government data and his efforts to shut down agencies and implement massive funding cuts.

Reports of vehicle and storefront vandalism surfaced as activists called for Tesla drivers to sell their vehicles and dump shares as a form of protest against Musk’s involvement. This sentiment resulted in substantial declines in Tesla’s share price on multiple occasions throughout March, the largest of which (15.43 percent) occurred on March 10 when President Trump confirmed his intention to move forward with tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico.

Tariffs

Global tariffs announced on April 2 have added another layer to the challenges global trade poses to the cleantech sector, particularly for the auto industry. While the situation is unfolding and some political analysts are hopeful that negotiations will result in lower levies, many economists say high tariffs could devastate the sector.

CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson’s latest analysis describes how Tesla is the “least exposed” to automobile tariffs and could even stand to benefit. “There are very few winners,” Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting for AutoForecast Solutions, said in a telephone interview with Bloomberg. “Consumers will be losers because they will have reduced choice and higher prices.”

Renewable energy: growth amidst policy uncertainty

Recent efforts to bolster the renewable energy sector have seen gradual success, as demonstrated by new data from the International Renewable Energy Agency showing that added renewable energy capacity accounted for more than 90 percent of total global power expansion last year.

Solar and wind energy grew at the highest rate, with the US adding a 54 percent increase in solar capacity.

BloombergNEF’s Trends report, released on January 30 with data likely compiled before the inauguration and subsequent policy changes, named solar and wind power as a “mature” part of the energy transition likely to continue to receive funding in 2025; however, under the Trump administration, the near-term future of both industries appears uncertain.

Energy research firm Wood Mackenzie’s David Brown told the Globe and Mail in January that despite the current strong growth in US solar capacity, the effects of policy uncertainty and incentive cuts might be more pronounced after the next 12 to 18 months.

Along with pausing IRA funding earmarked for climate programs, Trump ordered the suspension of wind and solar power projects. Wood McKenzie recently cut its five year outlook for new wind energy projects by 40 percent, citing economic concerns and the current administration’s policies as hurdles.

Yet, within this evolving landscape, Plug Power, a hydrogen manufacturer that secured a loan guarantee of almost US$1.7 billion to build hydrogen power plants before Biden left office, was able to navigate the existing incentive structures to claim tax benefits after this order took effect.

The company added US$30 million to its liquidity pool on January 24 through the transfer of the Federal Investment Tax Credit; however, a US$200 million funding gap prompted analysts at Seeking Alpha to name it a high-risk bet.

Cleantech outlook for 2025

Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Transition Outlook for 2024-25 suggests that power sector emission drops and electric vehicle adoption could reduce North America’s power sector emissions by 20 percent by 2030, although factors like tariffs and policy could impede this progress.

While bank financing for low-carbon energy technologies nearly matched that of fossil fuels in 2023, a potential funding threat has emerged as all major US banks have withdrawn from the Net Zero Banking Alliance. Additionally, BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) announced its decision to leave the Net-Zero Asset Managers initiative in January.

The current political and economic outlook presents a landscape rife with questions for the cleantech industry. A District Court judge in Rhode Island blocked the order to freeze IRA funding in late January, but comments from the administration suggest the battle is far from over.

Yet, progress continues on several fronts. A note by Citigroup ESG analysts asserts that the energy transition is further along now than during Trump’s first term, and his policies will not be able to hold back the progress that has already begun.

Companies are continuing to expand. Revel CEO Frank Reig told Axios there’s still plenty of financing support for EV charging from local governments and state utilities, despite the cutbacks in federal funding. The electric taxi company recently opened its first EV fast-charging station outside of New York City in San Francisco’s Mission District, with plans to add another 125 chargers at seven sites in the Bay Area within the year.

EV maker Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN) is proceeding with its US$6.6 billion IRA-backed Georgia factory despite earlier state-level uncertainty. Rivian has also spun out a new micromobility startup, securing US$105 million in funding with investment from VC firm Eclipse. Researchers at BloombergNEF predict that by 2050, three out of four global sales of two- and three-wheelers will be electric vehicles, compared to approximately half in 2024.

Despite potential headwinds for renewables, Petar Pejovic, senior portfolio manager with Pejovic Bighill Private Wealth at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, suggested that energy demands for AI infrastructure are likely to support a diverse energy mix, including green sources.

Nuclear energy is gaining traction as a sustainable option, with nuclear fusion and small modular reactors identified by Cleantech Group at its annual North American forum as high-growth areas.

Electric mobility and hydrogen could face slower growth due to manufacturing hurdles and demand issues, respectively. However, investment opportunities are anticipated in hydrogen for long-term decarbonization.

The intersection of AI and cleantech is strengthening, attracting increased investment. Furthermore, the cleantech and defense sectors are converging on dual-use technologies. The growing awareness of the health impacts of climate change is also expected to drive further attention and investment in cleantech solutions.

The coming months will be critical in determining the trajectory of the cleantech industry as it navigates policy shifts, market competition, and technological advancements.

Copper price, January 2 to April 9, 2025.

Chart via Trading Economics.

The copper price saw significant gains throughout March, breaking through the US$5 mark on March 19. It set a new all-time high of US$5.22 on March 26 before falling to US$5.04 on March 31.

Since then, copper has been under pressure, and the price of the metal plunged to US$4.26 on April 7.

Copper market facing tariff uncertainty

The first quarter of the year was dynamic for copper, but few factors have influenced the market for the base metal more than the threat of tariffs from the US. This possibility has created a wider price gap between London Metal Exchange (LME) copper and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) copper.

According to an ING article published in mid-February, the CME price was more than 10 percent higher than the LME price at the time, prompting traders to begin shifting copper inventories from overseas warehouses into the US.

This movement elevated stockpiles at CME warehouses to over 100,000 metric tons, the highest level since they peaked at 250,000 metric tons during Donald Trump’s first presidency.

Overall, the US relies on copper imports, which account for 45 percent of its domestic consumption. Chile constitutes 35 percent of incoming supply, while Canada contributes 26 percent.

The majority of copper inflows are in the form of refined copper products, which make up 60 percent of US imports.

On February 25, Trump signed an executive order invoking Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act to initiate an investigation into the impact of copper imports on all forms on national security.

In the order, Trump noted that while the US has ample copper reserves, its smelting and refining capacity has declined. China has become the world’s leading supplier of refined copper, commanding a 50 percent market share.

During a mid-March CRU Group webinar focused on copper, Erik Heimlich, head of base metals at the firm, discussed why Trump may have announced the start of the investigation.

“Their reliance on imports has been growing systematically, and with the closure not so long ago of the Hayden smelter and the Amarillo refinery, that has increased even more,” he said.

Heimlich further explained that Trump may want to use copper tariffs to encourage a resurgence of copper processing in the US based on national security concerns. This point was reiterated by Bryan Billie, policy and geopolitical principal at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, during a virtual panel held at the beginning of April.

“The big question here is whether US dependencies on copper imports are supposedly compromising national security. That’s the legal rationale behind the investigation,” Billie said.

He also discussed the timeline, noting that Section 232 investigations typically take 270 days to complete, although they can be shorter. While it remains uncertain whether the investigation will lead to tariffs, it could also result in export controls, which might pose additional challenges in global copper markets.

Michael Finch, Benchmark’s head of strategic initiatives, suggested that the review is likely to take weeks rather than months, and could actually bring some relief to the market.

“I think, given that the market now expects the announcement on Section 232 to arrive a bit sooner than previously anticipated, I don’t believe as much copper will be trapped in the US as we progress through the coming quarters … I think it’s part of that trend that we’re witnessing a softening in the copper price,” he said.

Supply chain disruptions and copper fundamentals

Other factors that have affected the copper price include a major power outage in Chile at the end of February.

Chile declared a state of emergency to address the outage, which left more than 8 million homes and a significant portion of the country’s mining operations without power.

The outage resulted from a transmission line failure in the northern part of the country, causing BHP (NYSE:BHP,ASX:BHP,LSE:BHP) to shut down operations at Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine.

Although power was restored in a few days, COMEX copper futures for March rose by 0.9 percent.

An additional supply disruption occurred in March, when Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTC Pink:GLCNF) declared force majeure and halted copper shipments from its Altonorte operation in Chile. The refinery produces 350,000 metric tons of copper anode annually, and a prolonged shutdown could impact an already tight copper market.

On a fundamental level, the International Copper Study Group provided preliminary data for January’s supply and demand conditions on March 21. In its release, the group outlines an apparent deficit of 19,000 metric tons of refined copper in the first month of the year, down from the 24,000 metric ton deficit reported in January 2024.

Supply and demand for refined copper maintained a balance at the start of the year, with each growing by 1 percent. Supply-side growth was largely constrained by a 14 percent drop in Chilean output.

Mine production experienced a 2 percent increase in January, with 7 percent year-on-year growth from Peru. The ramp up of production at Anglo American’s (LSE: AAL,OTCQX:AAUFK) Quellaveco mine was a key factor.

Additionally, supply increased by 6 percent in the Democratic Republic of Congo due to the expansion of Ivanhoe Mines’ (TSX:IVN,OTCQX:IVPAF) Kamoa-Kakula mine. A 3 percent increase in Asian production was offset by a 2 percent decline in North America. Chile also saw a fall of 2.7 percent compared to the same period last year.

Copper price outlook for 2025

Copper is tied closely to the global economy, making this a key factor to watch.

“CRU economists continue to expect global GDP to grow by 2.6 percent in 2025, and refined copper demand to grow by around 2.9 percent in both this and next year, which is actually an increase compared to our previous forecast. So despite the dramatic macro and geopolitical events that we have witnessed over the last few months, the base-case demand narrative for copper remains robust,” Heimlich said in mid-March.

However, he also noted that this base-case scenario is surrounded by uncertainty.

That uncertainty has come to the forefront at the start of Q2. Copper prices fell nearly 20 percent at the beginning of April as the Trump administration announced a new round of base-level and reciprocal tariffs.

Investors experienced a significant selloff as the prospect of a recession became more pronounced.

A recession would substantially impact base metals, including copper, as consumers turn away from big-ticket items like new homes and cars, which require large quantities of these materials

For investors, uncertainty will likely remain for some time. A Section 232 outcome could help stabilize copper, or it could escalate other aspects of a trade war between the US and the rest of the world.

It also remains unclear how long Trump’s tariffs will be in place.

This situation could provide opportunities for investors with an appetite for risk who are looking to make bets. Others may prefer to remain on the sidelines and wait for more clarity on the global trade front.