Since Israel began its concerted attack on Iran on Friday, calls for regime change in Iran have grown louder – from hawks in the United States Congress to Israeli officials and some Iranian activists abroad.

They argue that the Islamic Republic is significantly weakened, and that now is the time to capitalize on domestic unrest and public discontent to bring about the overthrow of its ruling clerical establishment, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at its head.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox News on Sunday that Israel’s operation “could certainly” result in regime change, as the government in Iran is “very weak.” He claimed that “80% of the people would throw these theological thugs out.”

“They shoot women because their hair is uncovered. They shoot students. They just suck the oxygen out from these brave and gifted people, the Iranian people,” Netanyahu said. “The decision to act, to rise up this time, is the decision of the Iranian people.”

Freedom of speech is heavily restricted in Iran, and there have been no major public calls from within the country to overthrow the regime following Israel’s attacks. But experts say Netanyahu may be misreading Iranian public sentiment – and that the strikes could backfire.

Israel’s attacks are more likely to direct public anger toward Israel, as domestic issues are briefly put aside while Iranians run for shelter, experts say.

Iran has in recent years seen nationwide protests against the regime, especially in 2022 and 2023, sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman arrested by Iran’s morality police for allegedly not wearing her headscarf properly. Many activists have since been detained, and authorities have sought repress further protest, instilling fear with a rise in criminal prosecutions and executions. Disgruntlement is widespread.

But experts, and Iranians currently living under Israeli bombardment, said that most Iranians don’t see Netanyahu or his government as having the solution to their domestic problems.

An uprising is very unlikely right now

“The people of Iran have fought against the Islamic Republic for years, striving for democracy and freedom,” the journalist said from Tehran. “But I believe that in the current situation, those who are terrified under missiles and explosions, trying to protect their children and loved ones, do not have the psychological or practical capacity to ‘take to the streets.’ The streets, which are constantly under attack, are now emptier than ever.”

“Moreover, from the public’s perspective, the Islamic Republic has not yet become weak enough to collapse through protests. Any action against the regime during wartime will lead to brutal repression,” the journalist said, adding that “now the regime has free rein to label anyone it wants as an Israeli spy.”

Others say during a time of national crisis, people are more likely to favor unity, no matter how dissatisfied they are. To them, foreign intervention is a red line.

“There is no support that they will give to Netanyahu’s war on themselves and their society. If anything, they are organizing now to help each other defend their country,” Azizi said, referring to anti-regime Iranians. “Any idea that this will lead to a popular uprising of some sort that will bring down the regime has very little basis in reality.”

Even in the diaspora, where many anti-regime Iranians live, there is anger at Israel’s actions, with activists calling for unity in the face of Israel’s assault.

Narges Mohammadi, one of Iran’s most prominent human rights activists and 2023 Nobel Peace Prize winner, who has spent years in prison in Tehran on what supporters say are politically motivated charges, posted on X: “Iranian Civil Society Says No to War!”

She and other Iranian activists, including fellow Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi and filmmakers Jafar Panahi and Mohammad Rasoulof, all of whom have been pursued by the regime for their activism, wrote a joint opinion piece in France’s Le Monde newspaper Monday calling for an end to the war – but they also demanded that Iran stop enrichment of uranium and that the regime step down.

“This conflict not only destroys infrastructure and claims civilian lives but also constitutes a serious threat to the very foundations of human civilization,” they wrote.

In recent years, Israel has strengthened ties with Reza Pahlavi, the US-based son of Iran’s deposed monarch. Pahlavi voiced support for Israel’s actions, drawing praise from some in the Iranian diaspora and accusations of betrayal from others.

“Soon in Tehran,” Israeli Minister of Diaspora Affairs Amichai Chikli posted on X on Friday, along with a picture of himself shaking hands with a smiling Pahlavi. Pahlavi told BBC News on Sunday that Israel’s conflict with Iran was an opportunity to bring down the Iranian regime.

“The ultimate solution is regime change,” he said. “Now, we have an opportunity, because this regime is at its weakest point. There’s (a) window in which we can operate and hopefully liberate our country.”

His US-backed father had warm ties with Israel before he was overthrown by the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

‘Region cannot be reshaped through force’

Israel has pounded Iran with strikes for four days, striking residential areas and the country’s civilian infrastructure. At least 224 people have been killed in the country since hostilities began Friday, the health ministry said Sunday, according to state media.

Israel has said it is doing so to stop the Islamic Republic from acquiring a nuclear weapon and has targeted several of the country’s nuclear sites, but civilians appear to have borne the brunt of the attacks.

Iran has retaliated by firing 370 ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones at Israel, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office said. By Monday morning, 24 people had been killed in Israel and 592 others had been wounded.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Monday that “the residents of Tehran will pay the price,” later clarifying that Israel didn’t intend to harm civilians.

Israeli officials “don’t even pretend” to care about the safety of Iranian civilians, said Azizi, the Iran expert.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian called for unity, in a statement released through state media. “The people of Iran must join hands and stand strong against the aggression that has been launched against us,” Pezeshkian said, adding that the Iranians were “not the aggressors” and defending Iran’s right to a peaceful nuclear program.

In its operation, Israel has taken out some of Iran’s most senior military officials, including in the powerful Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Even if the leadership changes, it may not look like what Netanyahu hopes for, Iran experts said.

“Regime change is a possibility, just not the kind that Netanyahu has in mind,” Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of the Amwaj news outlet, wrote on X. “Among potential medium-term outcomes of Israel’s war on Iran: military-led administration, possibly armed with nuclear weapons.”

Netanyahu’s call for regime change by force has also alarmed other countries in the region.

Speaking to the Paris-based journal Le Grand Continent, Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the president of the United Arab Emirates, warned that “when a country feels under attack, nationalism tends to intensify.”

Asked about Netanyahu’s call for an uprising in Iran, Gargash said: “The region cannot be reshaped through force and confrontation. We may be able to resolve some problems in the short term, but this will lead to others that are at least as serious.”.

“Of course, we’re glad to see the leaders of this regime – whose hands are stained with the blood of our children – killed. But the death of ordinary people is painful.”

The young girl sits on the dusty floor, clutching her father’s shoe close to her chest as she cries and screams in anger. Bisan Qwaider is unconsolable. Her father has just been killed while trying to get food for her and her 10 hungry siblings.

Shadi knew travel to the area was dangerous: Ma’an had been under an Israeli evacuation order for some time and has come under Israeli bombardment. But, despite the risk, his children were hungry and he believed he could get some food there for them.

Gaza is facing a hunger crisis. A UN-backed report published in late April warned that one in five people in Gaza were facing starvation and that the entire enclave was edging closer to famine. The situation has only worsened since then, according to the UN.

Sha’ath said Qwaider was killed in an airstrike and his body was pulled from the rubble on Sunday. He is one of hundreds of people who have died while attempting to find food in Gaza in recent weeks, according to Gaza health authorities.

In late May, Israel partially lifted an 11-week total blockade on Gaza, but humanitarian organizations say the aid entering now is only a tiny fraction of what is needed.

“Without immediate and massively scaled-up access to the basic means of survival, we risk a descent into famine, further chaos, and the loss of more lives,” the UN’s humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher said last week.

The humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza has sparked outrage around the world, recently prompting even some of Israel’s closest allies to speak up.

France, the United Kingdom and Canada issued a rare statement last month criticizing Israel and threatening “concrete steps” if the situation in Gaza does not improve. The UK paused trade negotiations with Israel and sanctioned West Bank settlers last month, and the European Union said it would review a key cooperation agreement with Israel.

But as tensions continue to escalate between Israel and Iran, people in Gaza are now worried that even the limited pressure on Israel over their suffering will quickly evaporate.

“All the (focus) has shifted to the Israeli-Iranian war, even though the Gaza Strip has been wiped off of the map,” Mustafa said.

One in 40 dead

More than 55,300 people have been killed and more than 128,700 injured in Gaza since October 7, 2023, according to health authorities there.

The numbers are staggering: The death toll represents some 2.5% of the entire Gaza population, meaning that out of every 40 Palestinians living in Gaza before the war, one is now dead.

And the deadly hunger crisis is worsening. The International Committee of the Red Cross said on Monday that people are struggling to access basic goods because of Israeli restrictions on what can be brought into the territory.

Meanwhile, a US and Israeli-backed aid initiative, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) – a controversial organization that was established amid Israeli accusations that Hamas is stealing aid in Gaza and profiting off its sale – is struggling to fulfill the task.

The organization has been criticized by multiple international aid agencies that it isn’t fit for purpose.

According to Gaza health authorities, at least 300 people have been killed since the GHF opened its distribution points in late May, which are located in areas surrounded by active combat zones.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said last week that Israeli authorities have allowed only a select number of UN agencies and international non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to resume the delivery of aid into Gaza after partially lifting the blockade and that “only very limited amounts of certain food items, nutrition supplies, some health supplies, and water purification items” are allowed.

Other aid supplies, such as shelter materials, hygiene products and medical equipment are still being blocked by Israel, according to OCHA.

For young Bisan Qwaider, the only thing from her father she could get a hold of was his shoe.

As she screamed for her father, she looked to the sky and shouted a message for those she believed were responsible for his death. “May God hold you accountable,” she said.

Iran has arrested dozens of people on suspicion of spying as fears grow in the Islamic Republic over the extent of its infiltration by Israel’s Mossad intelligence service.

Since Israeli strikes began Friday, 28 people in the capital have been arrested and accused of spying for Israel, while on Monday, one man arrested on that charge two years ago was hanged in what appeared to be a message to any would-be collaborator.

The Iranian regime has also arrested scores of people across the country for allegedly sharing articles online “in support of the Zionist regime” – accusing them of disrupting the “psychological security of society” – including 60 people in Isfahan, where Israel claims to have targeted a nuclear site.

The wave of arrests comes as Tehran reels from the revelation that Mossad operatives smuggled weapons into Iran before Israel’s unprecedented attack and used them to target the country from within.

So heightened have Iranian suspicions become since then that its Intelligence Ministry has been asking the public to report suspicious activity and issuing guidance on how to spot collaborators.

One statement from the ministry urges people to be wary of strangers wearing masks or goggles, driving pickup trucks and carrying large bags or filming around military, industrial, or residential areas.

Elsewhere, a poster published by the state-affiliated Nour News – which is close to Iran’s security apparatus – singled out for suspicion people who wear “masks, hats, and sunglasses, even at night” and those who receive “frequent package deliveries by courier.”

The poster asks people to report “unusual sounds from inside the house, such as screaming, the sound of metal equipment, continuous banging” and “houses with curtains drawn even during the day.”

Another poster, attributed to the police and published on state media, advised landlords who had recently rented their homes to notify the police immediately.

The fears of Israeli penetration only amplify the anxieties felt by the increasingly isolated leadership of the Islamic Republic, which has been rocked in recent years by anti-regime protests sparked by the death of a young woman in the custody of the country’s so-called morality police.

The same force used to crack down on those protests, the Basij (a paramilitary wing of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard) has been deployed in night patrols to increase “surveillance” in the wake of the Israeli infiltration, according to Iran’s state-controlled media.

In a video statement Monday, Iran’s chief of police Ahmad-Reza Radan urged “traitors” to come forward, suggesting those who realized they had been “deceived by the enemy” might receive more lenient treatment and be “honored” by Iran – while those who were caught would be “taught a lesson that the Zionist enemy is being given now.”

The head of Iran’s judiciary Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i called for “swift” punishment of those accused of collaborating with Israel.

“Let’s say we have apprehended someone who is collaborating with (Israel), this matter under these war-like conditions … must be prosecuted swiftly and punished swiftly,” he said.

The Iranian regime’s rising paranoia comes as more details emerge of the Mossad operation that smuggled weapons into Iran ahead of the first strikes on Friday.

According to Israeli officials, operatives established a base for launching explosive drones inside Iran, then used those drones to target missile launchers near Tehran.

Precision weapons were also smuggled in, they say, and used to target surface-to-air missile systems, clearing the way for Israel’s Air Force to carry out more than 100 strikes with upward of 200 aircraft in the early hours of Friday local time.

Intelligence gathered by the Mossad in Iran also reportedly gave Israel’s Air Force the ability to target senior Iranian commanders and scientists.

Since then, according to Iranian media outlets, the government has seized equipment allegedly used during the Israeli operation – including 200 kilograms of explosives, several suicide drones, launchers and equipment used to manufacture the drones – in the city of Rey in Tehran province.

A video published by the state-affiliated Fars News Agency showed a building with drone parts and other equipment.

Russian overnight drone and missile attacks on Kyiv killed 14 people, officials said on Tuesday, in the deadliest strikes on the capital in weeks.

More than 55 people were wounded in the city, according to Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko, making it one of the deadliest nights for its residents in weeks.

Kyiv residents heard loud sirens from late Monday, through the early morning hours of Tuesday, making it a loud and sleepless night for many in the city. The sirens continued as day broke Tuesday – an alarm purportedly for a ballistic threat, according to the Ukrainian Air Force.

Of those wounded, more than 40 have been taken to hospitals, Klitschko said, with residential buildings and other infrastructure severely damaged.

“We hope that no dead will be found under the rubble, but we cannot rule it out,” Klitschko added. “The death toll may increase.”

“During the attack on Kyiv in the Solomyanskyi district, a 62-year-old US citizen died in a house opposite to the one where medics were providing assistance to the victims,” Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko said in a message on Telegram, without giving details.

Paramedics and police were seen working to rescue people wounded in a building that appears partially collapsed, according to video posted by the State Emergency Service of Ukraine.

Smoke could be seen rising from the site and debris was strewn all over the ground. Vehicles in front of the building were charred and destroyed.

Some 27 locations in different districts came under fire, according to a statement from Ukraine’s Minister of Internal Affairs, Ihor Klymenko.

“Rescuers, police and medics are working. They are doing everything they can to help the victims, clear the rubble and save lives,” he said.

The strikes come as Trump announced he would return to Washington a day early from the Group of 7 summit in Canada.

His early departure means he will miss a key meeting with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the event.

It would have been the leaders’ third meeting since Trump took office in January.

Ukrainian officials had been hoping that a positive interaction with Trump could advance Kyiv’s case as Russia has ramped up its airborne attacks in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu arrived in Pyongyang on a “special mission” from Russian leader Vladimir Putin, according to Russian state news agency TASS.

Shoigu is scheduled to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Tass reported Tuesday.

Pyongyang has continued support for Moscow’s war on Ukraine as world leaders push for an end to the three-year conflict.

North Korea has sent soldiers and millions of munitions, including missiles and rockets, to Russia over the past year, according to a May report by an international watchdog, the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team.

The US has warned that Russia may be close to sharing advanced space and satellite technology with North Korea in exchange for continued support for the war in Ukraine.

In April, Russia launched its deadliest wave of attacks on Kyiv in nine months, sending 70 missiles and 145 drones toward Ukraine, mainly targeting the capital city, killing at least 12 people and injuring 90 more.

Under Trump, the US has been less willing to equip badly outgunned Ukraine directly, has pushed European partners to pick up more of the support and threatened to walk away altogether from peace talks.

Five tunnels burrowing into a group of mountains, a large support structure and a wide security perimeter: That’s all you can see of Iran’s mysterious Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant from recent satellite imagery.

The secretive, heavily guarded complex built close to the holy city of Qom has been fueling speculation about its true nature and size since it was first made public in 2009.

A chunk of what we do know about it comes from a trove of Iranian documents stolen years ago by Israeli intelligence.

Its main halls are an estimated 80 to 90 meters (around 262 to 295 feet) beneath the ground – safe from any aerial bomb known to be possessed by Israel, making destroying the facility from the air a near-impossible task.

As Iran’s leadership reels from a series of devastating Israeli strikes, some analysts say that it is at Fordow that Iran may rush to convert enriched uranium stockpiles into a nuclear bomb.

Israel has targeted the facility in recent days but, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), so far it has either been unwilling – or unable – to damage it.

Tehran has long maintained the objectives of its nuclear program are peaceful, but Fordow has been at the heart of concern over Iran’s ambitions.

“The size and configuration of this facility is inconsistent with a peaceful program,” then US President Barack Obama said in 2009 as he, along with then French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown revealed the existence of Fordow to the world.

Just days before the announcement, the Iranians, apparently knowing Western agencies had learned about the facility, told the IAEA of their desire to build a new fuel enrichment facility. By that point construction at Fordow had been underway for years.

Tehran pushed back against the accusations, but condemnation even from ally Russia and concerns from China left it with little room to maneuver.

Construction started in the early 2000s

The US and its allies have not provided much detail on when the construction of Fordow started, but publicly available historical satellite imagery shows work at the site as far back as 2004, with photographs revealing two white square structures where the tunnel entrances are located today. The IAEA says it has additional imagery showing construction as far back as 2002.

“Fordow is actually a project that started during what we call the crash nuclear weapons program of the early 2000s,” said David Albright, head of the Washington, DC-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), a nonpartisan institution dedicated to stopping the spread of nuclear weapons. “The idea was they (the Iranians) would make weapon-grade uranium in that plant, and they would obtain low-enriched uranium from the civil nuclear program in Iran.”

In 2009, a large outside support structure was already fully built and excavation was ongoing for what experts believe to be a ventilation shaft, crucial to allow air circulation into the facility. That shaft was later concealed and camouflaged, more recent imagery also shows.

Tehran explained to the IAEA in a letter dated October 2009 that the decision to build the facility underground was a result of “threats of military attacks against Iran,” adding that Fordow would serve as a contingency for the nearby Natanz plant, which, it claimed, “was among the targets threatened with military attacks.”

Iran told the IAEA the facility could house up to 3,000 centrifuges.

Nuclear deal and Israeli accusations

The dangers posed by Fordow were largely tamed as a result of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) the so-called “Iran nuclear deal,” that required Iran to remove two-thirds of the centrifuges inside the facility, along with all nuclear material, after the facility was banned from any such work.

That process was slowly reversed when US President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018.

Further details about the facility were made public by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2018, after his country’s intelligence services seized more than 55,000 documents from what Israel said was Iran’s “atomic archive.”

Among the documents were detailed blueprints of Fordow and information on its objectives: To produce weapons-grade uranium, as part of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, for at least one or two nuclear weapons per year.

“We never saw any, any inconsistency,” Albright, who has combed through the documents, said of Iran’s push to develop nuclear weapons. “It’s hundreds of thousands of pages. I mean you just can’t make that amount of stuff up. I don’t think anyone challenges it, and that’s probably why there is an (IAEA) Board of Governors resolution against Iran.”

At the time, then Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the revelations and Netanyahu’s comments “childish” and “laughable.” Then US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the US had known about the material “for a while” and believed the documents were authentic.

Protected from even the largest bombs

Recent IAEA reports suggested Iran had ramped up production of enriched uranium to a level of 60% at the Fordow facility, which, according to experts and the IAEA, now contains 2,700 centrifuges.

“The significantly increased production and accumulation of highly enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear-weapon state to produce such nuclear material, is of serious concern,” the IAEA said in a report on May 31.

“One of the things that elevated the tension, was they have no reason to do that, other than to be able to then go the next step and turn it into weapon-grade uranium,” Albright said.

“It was interpreted as they’re preparing themselves to be able to do it if they decide to. And if you’re 60%, you can turn it into weapon-grade uranium very quickly,” he added.

According to the ISIS think tank, “Iran can convert its current stock of 60 percent enriched uranium into 233 kg of weapon-grade uranium in three weeks at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant,” enough for nine nuclear weapons.

That is why Fordow is a major focus of Israel’s attempts to degrade and destroy Iran’s nuclear program. But is it even feasible?

The US is the only country that possesses the kind of bomb required to strike Iran’s Fordow nuclear site, Israel’s ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, said in an interview with Merit TV on Monday.

“For Fordow to be taken out by a bomb from the sky, the only country in the world that has that bomb is the United States. And that’s a decision the United States has to take, whether or not it chooses to actually pursue that course,” Leiter said. But, he added, that wasn’t the only option: “There are other ways of dealing with Fordow.”

Destroying Fordow from the air would be almost impossible for Israel, according to a March report from the UK-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank and would require significant firepower and assistance from the United States.

It would not even be reachable by the US’ GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator bombs, which only reach about 60 meters deep, according to the RUSI report. And the GBU-57 can only be delivered by US Air Force B-2 stealth bombers, something Israel doesn’t have – even if the US would give it the bombs.

“Even the GBU-57/B would likely require multiple impacts at the same aiming point to have a good chance of penetrating the facility,” said the report.

Other analysts agree, saying, if the US were to try to hit Fordow, it probably couldn’t be done with one bomb.

Albright says there could be other ways to disable Fordow.

“Israel could probably destroy the tunnel entrances pretty far back, and certainly destroy the ventilation system,” he said. “If you destroyed (the tunnels) and the electric electrical supply, it would be months before they could really operate.”

Despite its crucial role in Iran’s nuclear program, Albright believes Fordow is just another piece of the puzzle.

“If you destroy it, it’s not the end of the line, because you then go to the next threat, which is, how many centrifuges has Iran made that they didn’t deploy at Fordow and Natanz? And where are they?” he said.

“I think people over-emphasize the need to destroy it by bringing down its ceilings, which admittedly, probably only the US can do.”