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The Iranian regime has allegedly broadcast at least 97 ‘coercive confessions’ from detained protesters on state television in just over two weeks, human rights groups say, as residents endure the longest internet blackout on record.

The videos reportedly feature handcuffed detainees with blurred faces showing remorse for their actions since the protests began Dec. 28, according to a rights group tracking the videos.

It said ominous music can be heard, and edited footage shows attacks on security forces, according to reporting by The Associated Press and data from the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA).

Other rights groups also claim the confession videos are coerced and obtained under duress, with protesters ‘dragged before cameras under the threat of torture and execution.’

‘The regime’s broadcast of so-called confessions by detained protesters is a threadbare and worn tactic,’ Ali Safavi, a senior official with the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), told Fox News Digital.

‘Time and time again, the henchmen drag arrested demonstrators before cameras under the threat of torture and execution, coercing them to recant their beliefs or invent absurd stories.’

The broadcasts come amid nationwide protests sparked by public anger over political repression, economic collapse and alleged abuses by security forces.

Demonstrations have spread across major cities despite mass arrests, lethal force and sweeping restrictions on communication.

Safavi said the confessions serve a dual purpose. 

‘First, they are meant to justify the mass slaughter of protesters, no fewer than 3,000, which NCRI President-elect Maryam Rajavi has stated constitute manifest crimes against humanity,’ he said.

‘These forced confessions are designed to demoralize the Iranian people and sow fear and doubt.’

But he said any mass executions or staged confessions ‘won’t achieve that because no amount of televised coercion or repression will break the protesters’ resolve.’

U.S.-based HRANA has warned that forced confessions in Iran frequently follow psychological or physical torture and can carry severe consequences, including death sentences.

‘These rights violations compound on top of each other and lead to horrific outcomes,’ Skylar Thompson, HRANA group’s deputy director, told The Associated Press, adding that the scale of broadcasts is unprecedented.

The confession campaign coincides with a sweeping internet shutdown that has effectively cut the public off from independent information.

According to NetBlocks, Iran’s internet blackout has surpassed 144 consecutive hours, making it one of the longest disruptions ever recorded.

‘The shutdown is still ongoing, making it one of the longest blackouts on record,’ Isik Mater, NetBlocks’ director of research, told Fox News Digital.

‘State TV continues to operate normally via satellite transmission, which does not depend on the public internet, which means households can still watch Iranian state channels even during a near-total shutdown.’

Mater said the blackout magnifies the impact of state propaganda because ‘while the public is cut off, the state relies on broadcast media and its domestic National Information Network to control what people see,’ he said, likening Iran’s information strategy to that of North Korea.

‘A useful comparison is North Korea where the vast majority of citizens there have little to no access to the global internet, yet the state TV and radio broadcast regime propaganda 24/7,’ he said.

‘Information flows through closed systems, like North Korea’s domestic intranet Kwangmyong and not the open internet.’

Mater added that shutdowns are highly selective, with senior officials and state institutions retaining connectivity through ‘whitelisted networks.’

‘Senior officials and state institutions retain connectivity via whitelisted government networks and private links,’ Mater said.

‘This is why Ali Khamenei and other government officials continue posting on global social media platforms during the blackout, enabling the regime to shape the narrative internationally while citizens are unable to document events or even respond.’

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Senate Republicans successfully spiked a bipartisan attempt to curb President Donald Trump’s war powers authority after a pair of key GOP lawmakers reversed their positions. 

Republicans turned to a rarely used Senate procedure previously used by Senate Democrats in a similar situation to nullify the Venezuela war powers resolution from Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va. The successful effort came after five Senate Republicans joined all Senate Democrats to advance the resolution last week. 

Their move drew heavy criticism and anger from Trump, who demanded that they ‘should never be elected to office again.’ 

The resolution was tanked on a 51 to 50 vote, with Vice President JD Vance coming in to break a tie in favor of Trump. 

Turning to the arcane procedural move served as a victory for both the president and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., after last week’s rare defeat on the floor.  

Thune, like several other Republicans, contended that the resolution was not germane to the issues at hand in Venezuela. 

‘We don’t have troops in Venezuela. There is no kinetic action, there are no operations,’ Thune said. ‘There are no boots on the ground. And I think the question is whether or not there ought to be expedited consideration or privilege accorded to something that’s brought to the floor that doesn’t reflect what’s what is current reality in Venezuela.’

‘And so I think it’s very fair for Republicans to question why we ought to be having this discussion right now, particularly at a time when we’re trying to do appropriations bills,’ he continued.

Thune, Senate Republican leadership, Trump and several administration officials launched a pressure campaign on the five original defectors who helped Senate Democrats advance the bill. While not every lawmaker flipped, Sens. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., and Todd Young, R-Ind., proved the decisive votes to help kill the resolution. 

Hawley’s primary concern was whether the administration would place troops in Venezuela, but after several meetings and conversations with Trump administration officials, he was convinced that no further military action would take place. 

‘To me, this is all about going forward,’ Hawley said of his reversal. ‘If the president decides we need to put troops on the ground in Venezuela, then Congress will need to weigh in.’

Young kept tight-lipped about his plan until the vote opened, and explained before walking onto the Senate floor that the deliverables and guarantees he had received from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the administration were enough for him. 

Among those were promises that if Trump did want to use force against Venezuela, he would first request authorization from Congress, and that Rubio would appear before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for a public hearing in the coming weeks to give an update on the situation in the region.

‘Those who understand how Congress works, the good and the bad and the ugly, understand that votes like this, in the end, are communications exercises,’ Young said. ‘They’re important communications exercises, but unless you can secure sufficient votes, not only to pass the United States Senate, but to get out of the House, with which is highly questionable, right, and then to override what was an inevitable presidential veto, which is impossible. No one can tell me how we get there.’ 

‘I had to accept that this was all a communications exercise,’ he continued. ‘I think we use this moment to shine a bright light on Congress’ shortcomings as it relates to war powers in recent history.’

Still, Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, and Rand Paul, R-Ky., joined Senate Democrats to try and save the effort. 

Most Senate Republicans who were briefed on the matter last week argued that the strikes in Venezuela were justified and that the military was used to assist in a law enforcement operation to capture Maduro.

Rubio, in a letter to Senate Foreign Relations Chair James Risch, R-Idaho, affirmed, ‘There are currently no U.S. Armed Forces in Venezuela.’

‘Should there be any new military operations that introduce U.S. Armed Forces into hostilities, they will be undertaken consistent with the Constitution of the United States, and we will transmit written notifications consistent with section 4(a) of the War Powers Resolution (Public Law 93-148),’ Rubio wrote.

Kaine, who was confident that he would have the votes, panned that move ahead of the vote.

‘If people want to just say, ‘Hey, President Trump, do whatever the hell you want,’ Let them vote that way, but don’t change the rules of the Senate in a way that might disable future Senates that do have a backbone,’ Kaine told reporters.

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President Donald Trump announced Wednesday afternoon from the Oval Office that he learned the killing in Iran has ended. 

‘We’ve been told that the killing in Iran is stopping, and it’s stopped and stopping, and there’s no plan for executions or an execution,’ Trump said. ‘So, I’ve been told that on good authority. We’ll find out about.’

Trump made the announcement during a bill-signing ceremony in the Oval Office focused on ending an Obama-era policy barring public schools participating in the National School Lunch Program from offering whole and 2% milk to students.

Trump said he was informed by ‘very important sources on the other side, and they’ve said the killing is stopped. And the executions won’t take place.’ He did not divulge additional details. 

‘We’re going to watch and see what the process is. But we were given a very good, very good statement by people that are aware of what’s going on,’ Trump said when asked if military action was off the table considering the update. 

Iran’s citizens have taken to the streets in mass protests against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime in recent weeks, with reports claiming thousands of people have been killed as the regime cracks down on the protests. The protests come as the nation faces unrest over economic grievances and political repression. 

The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency announced that 1,847 of the dead were protesters and 135 were members of Iran’s security forces. Other reports say the death toll is more than 3,000 people, Fox News Digital previously reported. 

Iran’s judiciary had signaled a rapid crackdown, The Associated Press reported, with top judicial officials talking about fast-tracking trials for those arrested, a move that has raised alarms among rights groups about the risk of harsh sentences, including executions.

‘But that’s just gotten to me, some information, that the killing has stopped,’ Trump said. ‘That the executions have stopped and not going to have an execution, which a lot of people were talking about for the last couple of days. Today was going to be the day of execution.’

Trump and the administration have offered support to the protesters, including Trump calling on them to ‘take over’ the country’s institutions on Tuesday while canceling all meetings with the regime. 

‘I have canceled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY,’ Trump posted to Truth Social Tuesday. 

The White House confirmed Monday that Trump was considering bombing Iran if the killings and unrest didn’t end, and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said diplomacy remains Trump’s first option.

Fox News Digital reached out to a spokesperson for the Islamic Republic of Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations for additional comment but did not immediately receive a reply.

The protests are viewed as the most severe since 2022, when thousands took to the streets nationwide after the killing of a woman by the country’s morality police.

Fox News Digital’s Diana Stancy and Gregory Norman-Diamon contributed to this report. 

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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected claims of mass casualties amid a recent surge in protests within the Islamic country and blamed any killings that have taken place on an ‘Israeli plot’ intended to create a large number of casualties. 

The claim came during a wide-ranging interview on Fox News’ ‘Special Report with Brett Baier’ Wednesday evening, during which Araghchi was told estimates have indicated the death toll in his country could be anywhere between 2,500 to more than 12,000 protesters. But, according to the top Iranian official, the number is in the hundreds. 

‘When terrorist elements led from outside, entered this, you know, protests and started to shoot, you know, police forces, police officers and security forces. And there were terrorist cells. They came in, they used Daesh-style terrorist operations. They got police officers, burned them alive, they beheaded them, and they started shooting at police officers and also to the people. So as a result, for three days, we had, in fact, fighting against terrorists, and not with the protesters,’ Araghchi said. ‘It was completely a different story.’

According to Araghchi, these rogue, terrorist-like actors he spoke of started shooting at civilians for ‘one reason,’ which he said was to draw the United States into the conflict. 

‘They wanted to increase the number of deaths. Why? Because President Trump has said that if there are killings, he would intervene. And they wanted to drag him into this conflict,’ the Iranian Foreign Minister continued. ‘And that was exactly an Israeli plot. They started to increase the number of deaths by killing ordinary people, by killing police officers, by starting a kind of, you know, fighting inside the different cities.’

Iran has seen widespread unrest since the last week of December, as the country faces a massive economic crash that spurred many in Iran to take to the streets in protest.

 

Contrary to Araghchi’s claims are eyewitness reports that describe government forces in Iran firing upon unarmed protesters. Some even spoke of snipers taking aim at innocent Iranians, according to testimony shared with the New York Times.

During Baier’s interview with Iran’s Foreign Minister, Araghchi also insisted that there are no imminent plans to hang, or otherwise execute, protesters. The top Iranian official tried to downplay the unrest erupting in his country as well, arguing there is now ‘a calm.’    

‘We are in full control,’ Araghchi added. ‘And let’s, you know, hope that wisdom would prevail. And we don’t go for a high level of tension, which could be disastrous for everybody.’

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Several federal prosecutors in Minnesota were formally fired on Wednesday after they gave notice that they had resigned in the wake of internal disagreements over the Justice Department’s handling of a shooting investigation involving Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

The DOJ, at the direction of Attorney General Pam Bondi and Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, terminated the employment of five prosecutors in the U.S. attorney’s office in Minnesota, including Joseph Thompson, the No. 2 official there,according to two sources familiar with the matter.

Their resignations and the internal disputes about the shooting probe first surfaced in the New York Times. The prosecutors were positioned to receive paid leave for months prior to their firings on Wednesday,according to the sources.

Thompson was spearheading a massive, high-profile investigation into welfare fraud in the state before he submitted his resignation. His exit came after he clashed with officials in Washington, D.C., over the investigation into the ICE shooting, which left 37-year-old Renee Good dead. Fox News Digital reached out to the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Minnesota in an effort to reach Thompson for comment.

Thompson had expressed during a call with DOJ and FBI officials last week that he was on board with investigating the ICE shooting as an assault on or obstruction of a law enforcement officer, a source familiar with the call told Fox News Digital.

Another one of the fired prosecutors, Melinda Williams, who was also involved in the fraud work, was on the call as well, the source said.

Thompson also indicated that he believed the shooting was justified, two sources said. Prior to the shooting, he had already been discussing the possibility of resigning, the sources said.

Videos of the shooting showed an ICE agent opening fire on Good at close range after she was seen accelerating toward the agent in her vehicle while he was standing in front of it. Critics have argued that the agent improperly used deadly force against Good and that she had turned the wheels of her vehicle away from the agent before accelerating.

The FBI is investigating the incident and has excluded Minnesota prosecutors from the probe, which the Trump administration has said is justified because the incident involved a federal officer. Minnesota leaders have denounced that decision and launched their own parallel investigation.

While supportive of conducting the investigation as an offensive against law enforcement — rather than a civil rights matter against the agent — Thompson had reservations during last week’s call about the DOJ’s plan to also investigate Good’s widow and other possible co-conspirators, the source familiar with the call said.

The FBI had developed evidence that suggested Good and her spouse had at some point been following ICE officers on the day of the shooting, the source said.

That revelation echoes Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s allegations during a recent press conference that Good had been ‘stalking and impeding’ ICE throughout the day of the shooting. Noem said Good ‘weaponized’ her vehicle and that the ICE agent who fired shots feared for his life.

In a statement to Minnesota Public Radio, Good’s spouse, Becca, said that on Jan. 7, the day of the shooting, she and Renee ‘stopped to support [their] neighbors.’

‘We had whistles. They had guns,’ Becca Good said.

Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey and other Democrats have lauded the prosecutors who resigned, framing their departures as a valiant boycott against DOJ.

‘These prosecutors are heroes, and the people pushing to prosecute Renee’s widow are monsters,’ Frey wrote on X.

At this stage, there is no sign that the DOJ is planning to bring charges against Becca Good, despite the DOJ and FBI pursuing an investigation into her as part of a broader probe into any conspiracies to hinder federal law enforcement operations.

Fox News Digital reached out to the DOJ for comment.

David Spunt contributed to this report.

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The House of Representatives passed a roughly $80 billion spending package Wednesday evening, taking a significant step toward averting a government shutdown at the end of this month.

The package combines two of Congress’ 12 annual appropriations bills in what’s called a ‘minibus.’ It covers funding for the State Department and related national security, as well as federal financial services and general government operations.

The bill passed with overwhelming bipartisan support in a 341-79 vote.

Glaring questions still remain, however, over funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) as progressives threaten to withhold support from any such bill unless it’s paired with significant reforms to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

The push comes from the left in response to an ICE agent shooting 37-year-old Renee Nicole Good, a U.S. citizen who was driving her car when it made physical contact with a law enforcement official who then fatally shot her.

Partisan divisions have erupted over the narrative, with GOP officials like DHS Secretary Kristi Noem saying the agent acted in self-defense, while Democrats on Capitol Hill have called for criminal investigations.

DHS funding was initially expected to be part of this minibus, but House Appropriations Committee Chairman Tom Cole, R-Okla., told reporters earlier this week he would like to see the bill as part of the final package that’s also expected to include funding for the Department of War, Department of Transportation, Department of Labor, the Education Department and Health and Human Services, among others.

But the top Democrat on the panel, Rep. Rosa DeLauro, D-Conn., told reporters Tuesday she wanted to see DHS funding as a separate bill.

‘It’s got to be by itself,’ DeLauro said. ‘It’s got to be separate.’

Meanwhile, the Congressional Progressive Caucus is formally threatening to oppose any DHS funding that does not change immigration enforcement policy, Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., announced.

‘Our caucus members will oppose all funding for immigration enforcement in any appropriation bills until meaningful reforms are enacted to end militarized policing practices. We cannot, and we should not continue to fund agencies that operate with impunity,’ she told reporters.

But the bill that passed Wednesday did so with wide bipartisan support, as expected.

All federal spending bills after last year’s government shutdown are a product of bipartisan discussions between the House and Senate.

The recent package totals just over $76 billion in federal funds and is now headed to the Senate for its approval before reaching President Donald Trump’s desk.

The State Department and national security bill includes $850 million for an ‘America First Opportunity Fund,’ aimed at giving the secretary of state funding to respond to potential unforeseen circumstances.

Both Republicans and Democrats touted different victories in the legislation, with a summary by House Appropriations Committee Republicans stating the bill supports ‘President Trump’s America First foreign policy by eliminating wasteful spending on DEI or woke programming, climate change mandates, and divisive gender ideologies.’

Democrats said the bill ‘supports women globally’ by ‘protecting funding for bilateral family planning and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)’ and pointed to $6.8 billion for a new account ‘that supports the activities previously funded under Development Assistance.’ 

The bill also provides millions in security assistance for Israel and Taiwan, among other global partners across the world.

The latter bill provides just over $13 billion for the U.S. Treasury for the remainder of fiscal year 2026, while also including a provision that stops the IRS ‘from targeting individuals or groups for exercising their First Amendment rights or ideological beliefs,’ according to Republicans.

It also provides $872 million for the Executive Office of the President and $9.69 billion in discretionary funding for the Federal Judiciary.

Across the Capitol, the Senate is expected to vote on and pass the previous three-bill funding package on Thursday before leaving Washington, D.C., for a weeklong recess.

Neither side appears willing to thrust the government into another shutdown, with Senate Democrats in particular viewing the package as an opportunity to fund several of their priorities. But there is a growing consensus that a short-term funding patch will be needed to allow lawmakers to finish work on the thornier DHS bill.

‘Homeland is obviously the hardest one, and it’s possible that, if we can’t get agreement, that there could be some sort of CR that funds some of these bills into next year,’ Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said.

Still, bipartisan funding talks are still happening, a stark departure from the last government funding deadline in October. But lawmakers in the upper chamber won’t be able to tackle the two-bill package until they return toward the end of the month.

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Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi plans to dissolve Parliament’s powerful lower house as early as this month, setting up a snap election aimed at securing voter backing for her agenda while her approval ratings remain high, a senior party official said.

The Associated Press reported that the move would allow Takaichi to seek fresh support for her economic and security priorities at a time when her scandal-tainted party and a new coalition partner hold only a slim majority in Japan’s legislature.

Takaichi made history in October when she was elected as Japan’s first female prime minister.

Described by some Japanese and international media as an ultraconservative, hard-line figure, Takaichi has backed strengthening Japan’s defense posture, emerged as a vocal China hawk and supported constitutional revisions to expand the role of the Self-Defense Forces.

Calling a snap election could allow Takaichi to capitalize on approval ratings of about 70% and help her Liberal Democratic Party gain additional seats in Parliament.

Shunichi Suzuki, secretary general of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, told reporters that Takaichi informed him and other senior officials of her intention to dissolve the lower house ‘soon’ after it convenes Jan. 23.

Suzuki said no date has been set for dissolving the chamber or holding a snap election, adding that Takaichi plans to outline her strategy at a news conference Monday.

Takaichi’s scandal-tainted LDP and its coalition hold only a narrow majority in the lower house, Parliament’s more powerful chamber, after losses in the 2024 election.

By calling an early vote, Takaichi appears to be aiming to expand her party’s share of seats and strengthen its position alongside a new junior coalition partner.

Opposition lawmakers criticized the plan as self-serving, saying it would delay urgent parliamentary debate over the national budget, which must be approved quickly.

Echoing Suzuki’s comments, media reports have said Takaichi plans to dissolve the lower house on Jan. 23, the opening day of this year’s ordinary parliamentary session, potentially setting the stage for a snap election as early as Feb. 8.

Takaichi is seeking voter backing for her agenda, including ‘proactive’ fiscal spending and an accelerated military buildup under a new coalition with the Japan Innovation Party, Suzuki said.

The conservative Japan Innovation Party joined the ruling bloc after the centrist Komeito party withdrew, citing disagreements over Takaichi’s ideological positions and her approach to anti-corruption reforms.

Takaichi met Wednesday with Suzuki and other coalition leaders after holding talks in Nara with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung at a summit aimed at strengthening bilateral ties. The meetings came as she faces rising trade and political tensions with China following remarks on Taiwan that angered Beijing days after she took office.

Winning a snap election would also make it easier for Takaichi and her governing bloc to pass a budget and advance other legislation.

Her Cabinet approved a record 122.3 trillion yen ($770 billion) budget in late December that must clear Parliament before the fiscal year begins in April. The plan includes measures to fight inflation, support low-income households and boost economic growth.

Known for her hawkish and nationalistic views and her ultra-conservative positions on social issues, including gender and sexual diversity, Takaichi is seeking to reclaim conservative voters drawn to emerging populist parties in recent elections.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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The silver price hit a new all-time high on Wednesday (January 14), rising as high as US$92.20 per ounce.

The white metal’s most recent rise continues a breakout that began on January 9 on a mixed bag of economic uncertainty, rising geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran and underlying industrial demand strength.

Adding fuel to the fire this week are increased expectations for a lower interest environment.

On January 9, the US Department of Justice served the US Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment over Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee this past June.

The event has sparked concerns that US President Donald Trump’s feud with the Fed over interest rates has taken a darker turn, although Trump has denied knowledge of the department’s move.

Powell’s term as Fed chair ends in May, but two years still remain on his term as a governor of the board.

The Fed’s next rate announcement is set for January 28, and CME Group’s (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch tool shows strong expectations for a hold. That’s despite core consumer price index (CPI) data showing that inflation rose by a lower-than-expected 0.2 percent for December. On an annual basis, core CPI was up 2.6 percent.

Target rate probabilities for January Fed meeting.

Chart via CME Group.

Trump has frequently criticized Powell for not lowering rates quickly enough, and Powell’s replacement, who has not yet been announced, is widely expected to be more in line with Trump’s views.

“We see increased interference with the Fed as a key bullish wildcard for the precious metals in 2026,” Carsten Menke, head of next-generation research at Julius Baer Group, told Bloomberg. He noted that because silver is a smaller market than gold, it typically reacts “more strongly to such concerns.”

Silver price chart, January 6 to 14, 2026.

Silver and its sister metal gold tend to fare better when rates are lower, meaning rate cut expectations coupled with the investigation of Powell and the Fed have helped to stoke prices for the precious metals.

While silver is known for lagging behind gold before outperforming, it’s now ahead in terms of percentage gains — silver is up about nearly 200 percent year-over-year, while gold has risen around 72 percent.

The yellow metal also hit a new all-time high on Wednesday, peaking at US$4,641.40 per ounce.

In addition to rate-related factors, silver’s breakout this year has been driven by various other elements.

As a precious metal, it’s influenced by many of the same factors as gold, but its October price jump, which took it past the US$50 level, was also driven by a lack of liquidity in the London market.

While that issue appears to have resolved, silver remains in a multi-year supply deficit. Tariff concerns and silver’s new status as a critical mineral in the US have also provided support.

In addition to its appeal as a precious metal, silver’s industrial side shouldn’t be forgotten — according to the Silver Institute, the white metal’s ‘global silver industrial demand is poised to grow further as demand from vital technology sectors accelerates over the next five years. Sectors such as solar energy, automotive electric vehicles and their infrastructure, and data centers and artificial intelligence will drive industrial demand higher through 2030.’

What’s next for the silver price?

Time will tell what’s next for silver, but some experts see it continuing to outperform gold in 2026.

‘So is it going to US$100 or US$200? It’s possible. I don’t really care, because … I don’t use either my silver or my gold as speculative vehicles. That’s not what they’re about to me.’

Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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S&P Global’s new report, Copper in the Age of AI: The Challenges of Electrification, warns that copper demand could surge 50 percent by 2040, reaching 42 million tonnes as the global push for electrification accelerates.

Supply, however, is projected to fall short, creating a 10 million tonne deficit, roughly 25 percent below demand , even as production peaks at 33 million tonnes in 2030.

The looming shortfall signals major opportunities for investors, but experts caution that production must ramp up now to avoid a deepening supply gap later.

Meeting demand through supply

‘Primary production—mining—remains the irreplaceable foundation of copper supply,’ said Global Head of Critical Minerals and Energy Transition Consulting at S&P Global Energy Eleonor Kramarz.

‘Bridging the impending supply gap depends not only on geology, engineering, and logistics and investment, but also on governance and policies. That translates into timeliness in permitting and consultation, a time clock on litigation and stability in governance and regulation. The alternative is uncertainty, and uncertainty comes at a hefty cost.’

The report added that output from existing mines will keep declining without significant new investment.

Recycling is regarded as the “secondary supply,” but however provides at best only about a third of the total supply by 2040.

Processing also remains critical in this scenario. Smelting and refining capacity is still concentrated in China, accounting for about 40 to 50 percent total capacity or 12 of the 29 million metric tons to be specific.

“(This) geographic concentration amplifies systemic risks and exposes the supply chain to geopolitical shocks.”

“While recycling could possibly meet up to a quarter of total demand by 2040, it cannot close the gap – primary mined supply remains essential,” the report concluded.

Copper and electrification

S&P Global wrote that copper also plays a huge role in meeting the growing requirements of electrification and technologies such as AI and data centers.

It noted that while AI is not creating the largest of copper demand, its requirements highlight the need for expanded electricity supply.

Still, there is a need to hold space for how AI will affect the generation of industrial, commercial, creative and even personal applications that require more electricity.

For data centers, the electricity demand in the US could rise from the current 5 percent to 14 percent by 2030.

“Data centers are electricity-intensive, and their proliferation is driving massive investments in both direct copper use (for power delivery, cooling, and IT infrastructure) and in the electric grid infrastructure that supports them.”

The report illustrated that to meet the global power demand of 2040, the world will need to build the equivalent of roughly 330 Hoover Dams, or over 650 one-gigawatt nuclear reactors each year between now and then.

“Copper is the material enabling this massive growth in power demand – unlocking the age of AI and the electrified future of which it is characteristic.”

A report by Benchmark on annual EV sales revealed that 20.7 million units were sold in 2025, but that the same growth rate of 20 percent “is not expected” to be the same in 2026.

Noting, “manufacturers (will) focus their efforts on the deadline year, 2027.’

In terms of overall demand for copper and how it relates to EVs, S&P Global said that demand for ICE vehicles declines due to the growing share of EVs.

“Construction and machinery continue to be the largest contributors to core economic demand.”

Australia’s copper developments

As a nation, Australia is making moves that relate to copper in terms of demand and investment.

Its Critical Minerals Strategy and Resource Industry Growth Initiative, along with its partnership with Japan, prioritize joint investment and regulatory simplification.

Using public finance bodies such as the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) and JOGMEC, Japan is backing Australian projects to secure long-term access to critical minerals, including copper.

Firms such as Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC,OTCQX:LYSDY) and their projects also play a role, assisting in securing stable supplies of rare earths, lithium and copper.

In 2024 and 2025, cooperation under the Japan–Australia Critical Minerals Partnership expanded further, with new processing and infrastructure initiatives announced in Western Australia.

Large-scale infrastructure projects are also adding to future copper demand. One high-profile example is the proposed AAPowerLink subsea cable project, which would connect Australia to Singapore and Indonesia.

If developed as planned, the project could consume tens of thousands of tonnes of copper, highlighting how Australia’s export-focused energy and infrastructure strategy is translating into material demand growth.

Together, these developments underscore how government-backed partnerships and major infrastructure investments are reinforcing Australia’s role as a reliable copper supplier, while creating longer-term opportunities for investors across the copper value chain.

Addressing the basics

The demand for copper arises from the fact that it is essential for the generation, transmission and use of electricity.

The irony is that the metal which enables electrification is having a hard time catching up to the accelerating pace of electrification itself.

While S&P Global did not have policy recommendations, it implied that current policies may be slowing things down.

“Average copper mine takes 17 years from discovery to production, with much time spent on permitting, environmental reviews and community consultations.”

It cited that changing government terms, tariffs and regulatory frameworks are bringing uncertainty to the resource sector, slowing investment and project development.

The report also noted that while mining is the primary driver of supply, it is only a part of the picture. It’s also about what happens to copper when it leaves mines.

The conclusion is that the requirement is for multilateral cooperation and increased regional diversification.

“The future is not just copper-intensive, it is copper-enabled,” S&P Global concluded.

“As electrification and digital intelligence become defining characteristics of global development, copper is indeed an ever-more critical mineral, carrying the electric currents that are connecting, conducting, and catalyzing innovation and economic advance.”

Securities Disclosure: I, Gabrielle de la Cruz, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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Lithium prices surged to their highest levels in more than two years this week, extending a sharp rally driven by tightening supply and rising demand.

Benchmark prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate and hydroxide have jumped sharply, with Fastmarkets’ CIF China, Japan and South Korea assessments pushing above US$20,000 a ton.

Spodumene, the lithium-bearing mineral produced by Australian miners, also climbed above US$2,000 a ton for the first time since October 2023.

The rally has prompted brokers to reassess their outlooks. Broker Bell Potter this week lifted its price forecasts for spodumene to US$1,750 a ton by year-end, up 89 percent from its previous estimate of US$925.

While still conservative compared with more bullish projections that expects prices to peak around US$3,250 a ton this year, the upgrade signals a wide shift in sentiment across the sector.

Momentum has been particularly strong in China, where lithium prices jumped after Beijing announced changes to export tax rebates for battery products. The finance ministry said value-added tax rebates on battery exports will be reduced from 9 percent to 6 percent from April and scrapped entirely from January 1, 2027.

While the policy does not directly apply to lithium carbonate, investors expect battery makers to accelerate exports ahead of the deadline, lifting near-term production and, in turn, lithium demand.

That expectation helped push the most-active lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to its daily limit earlier this week. The contract closed at 156,060 yuan a ton (around US$22,300), its highest level since November 2023 and up more than 160 percent from last year’s lows.

Analysts have also pointed to low inventories in China, now at their weakest levels since mid-2024, which has positioned the market to be increasingly sensitive to shifts in demand.

Activity in derivatives markets also suggests the rally is also drawing in a broader set of participants. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) said trading volumes in its lithium hydroxide futures reached a record 8,296 tons in the first full week of 2026, surpassing the previous high set in early 2025.

“With the recent surge in spot prices and market activity it’s great to see that volumes are following the price trend,” said Przemek Koralewski, Fastmarkets’ global head of market development. “What a year ago was considered a very strong month, in volume terms, can now be traded in a week, pointing to an increase in available liquidity in the market.”

The rally comes after what analysts widely describe as one of the lithium market’s most punishing periods in recent memory. The sector entered 2026 following a prolonged downturn driven by deep oversupply, weaker-than-expected electric vehicle demand, and sustained price pressure that forced producers to cut output and delay projects.

In 2025, lithium carbonate prices in North Asia fell to four-year lows, reflecting the fallout from years of aggressive capacity expansion. Prices began to recover in the second half of last year as supply discipline tightened and inventories started to draw down.

By late December, lithium carbonate had risen roughly 56 percent from its January 2025 lows. Whether the rally will be sustained will depend on how quickly new supply comes online and whether demand growth meets expectations this year.

Securities Disclosure: I, Giann Liguid, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

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